Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Karolina Pliskova — Toronto Round of 128

Toronto · WTA · Round of 128
Oleksandra Oliynykova
UKR
Oleksandra Oliynykova
#44WTA
1773ELO
1572Hard ELO
25 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWWLLL
—
Sets
Monday, 3 August 2026 ·
hard
Karolina Pliskova
CZE
Karolina Pliskova
#63WTA
1869ELO
1811Hard ELO
34 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWLWWL
Oliynykova O.
vs
Pliskova K.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC
Oliynykova O.39%
Pliskova K.61%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Pliskova K. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
4 common opponents · Oliynykova O. 1–3 · Pliskova K. 3–2 · small sample
Both lost · same surface, 0 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Oliynykova O.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Pliskova K.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.0Hard Elo 1572
Surface ELO
8.0+239 Hard Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1773
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1869
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.45 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

33 vs 12 matches

Statistics

This season
Oliynykova O.Pliskova K.
1st serve in·Slight edge
74%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
58%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
42%
45%
Service points won·Slight edge
54%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
48%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
52%
57%
Aces / match·Dominant
0.7
4.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.7
4.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Oliynykova O.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Pliskova K.

Pliskova K.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Oliynykova O.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Oliynykova O.Pliskova K.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
78
86
Break points saved·Slight edge
75
82
Break points won·Slight edge
99
92
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
95
Tiebreaks·
—
63

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Oliynykova O.Pliskova K.
Freshness·
88
—

Oliynykova O.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 69%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw