Matteo Berrettini vs Mariano Navone — Montreal Round of 128
Berrettini M.
Matteo Berrettini faces Mariano Navone in the Montreal round of 128 on hard. Matteo Berrettini holds the paper edge — ranked #41, leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 100-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Berrettini M. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Matteo Berrettini grades 61 on serve, Mariano Navone 94 on return.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Matteo Berrettini has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 74 vs 40).
- Head-to-head: Matteo Berrettini leads the head-to-head 2–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at Monte Carlo Masters 2025.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadNavone M.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Head to head
2–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-07 | Monte Carlo Masters | R64 | clay | Matteo Berrettini | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2024-04-01 | Marrakech | SF | clay | Matteo Berrettini | 6-7 6-3 6-2 |