Janice Tjen vs Liudmila SamsonovaToronto Round of 128

Toronto · WTA · Round of 128
#37WTA
1658ELO
1684Hard ELO
$818kYTD
$1.2MCAREER
24 yrs · 171 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWLLLLWL
Sets
Monday, 3 August 2026 ·
hard
#70WTA
1775ELO
1723Hard ELO
$722kYTD
$8.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWLWLL
Tjen J.
vs
Samsonova L.

Janice Tjen faces Liudmila Samsonova in the Toronto round of 128 on hard. Liudmila Samsonova holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 40-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC
Tjen J.50%
Samsonova L.50%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
5 common opponents · Tjen J. 4–3 · Samsonova L. 2–3
Tjen J. better · same surface, 0 days apart
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.5Hard Elo 1684
Surface ELO
5.5+39 Hard Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1658
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1775
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
3.64 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.33 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

24 vs 26 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
47%
Service points won·Even
58%
58%
Return points won·Even
39%
43%
Break points saved·Even
50%
54%
Aces / match·Even
3.2
3.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.2
4.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Tjen J.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Samsonova L.

Samsonova L.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Tjen J.

Serve advantage — Samsonova L.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
57
Break points saved·Clear edge
84
68
Break points won·Slight edge
85
90
Deciding sets·Clear edge
75
54
Tiebreaks·Dominant
99
28

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
76
71

Tjen J.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d) · Samsonova L.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 69%

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-21MadridR64clayLiudmila Samsonova6-2 6-1
2026-02-01Abu DhabiR16hardLiudmila Samsonova6-2 6-2

Draw