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Win Probability

Sunday, 2 August 2026
20 rated matches · 12 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchOleg Prihodko vs Tiago Pereira50% · 50%Toss-up · M25 Koszalin · F · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteSara Bejlek vs Xiyu Wang89% · 11%Strong favourite · Toronto · R128 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches2012 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalM25 Koszalin · F · ClayTiago Pereira won 6-1 7-5Oleg Prihodko50%Tiago Pereira50%Toss-upH2H 1–0FinalLos Cabos · F · HardArthur Gea won 6-3 6-4Arthur Gea49%Denis Shapovalov51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalVancouver · F · HardJ J Wolf won 7-5 6-1J J Wolf53%Mark Lajal47%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalM15 Dublin · F · HardConor Gannon won 7-6(5) 6-7(3) 6-4Markus Molder53%Conor Gannon47%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalMontreal · R128 · HardJaume Munar won 7-6(3) 6-3Jaume Munar55%Rinky Hijikata45%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalMemphis · F · HardKristina Liutova won 1-6 6-1 6-3Kristina Liutova45%Darja Vidmanova55%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalW35 Aldershot · F · HardRina Saigo won 7-5 2-6 6-3Rina Saigo44%Adithya Karunaratne56%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalW15 Rogaska Slatina · F · ClayAlja Senica won 6-4 5-7 6-3Sara Mikaca57%Alja Senica43%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalSamsun · F · HardG. Debru won 3-6 7-5 6-4Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine58%G. Debru42%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalToronto · R128 · HardViktorija Golubic won 7-6(7) 6-4Kimberly Birrell59%Viktorija Golubic41%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 2–1FinalToronto · R128 · HardKatherine Sebov won 6-3 6-4Aoi Ito59%Katherine Sebov41%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalLiberec · F · ClayJan Kumstat won 6-3 6-1Jan Kumstat37%Gonzalo Bueno63%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalWashington · SF · HardRafael Jodar won 6-7(6) 6-4 6-4Rafael Jodar65%Alejandro Tabilo35%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalToronto · R128 · HardJessica Bouzas Maneiro won 6-2 6-4Jessica Bouzas Maneiro69%Ariana Arseneault31%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalWashington · SF · HardTaylor Fritz won 6-3 3-6 6-3Brandon Nakashima30%Taylor Fritz70%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–4FinalMontreal · R128 · HardJuncheng Shang won 6-3 6-3Adolfo Daniel Vallejo30%Juncheng Shang70%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalToronto · R128 · HardCamila Osorio won 7-6(4) 6-3Lucrezia Stefanini24%Camila Osorio76%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalToronto · R128 · HardKamilla Rakhimova won 6-4 6-1Kamilla Rakhimova82%Venus Williams18%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalToronto · R128 · HardMaiko Uchijima won 6-3 6-4Maiko Uchijima12%Cristina Bucsa88%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalToronto · R128 · HardSara Bejlek won 6-3 4-6 7-5Xiyu Wang11%Sara Bejlek89%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 1 Aug10 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 11.8 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days31 Jul 2026Bonn · QFJamie Mackenzie beat Jurij Rodionov 7-6(5) 6-4Pre-match: Jamie Mackenzie 10%Surprise score90

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.