Aoi Ito vs Katherine Sebov — Toronto Round of 128

Toronto · WTA · Round of 128

JPNQ

Aoi Ito

#235WTA

1549ELO

1568Hard ELO

22 yrs

Last 10

WLWWLLLWLL

—

Sets

Sunday, 2 August 2026 · 14:00

hard

CANWC

Katherine Sebov

#231WTA

1407ELO

1401Hard ELO

27 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWWWLWLWWW

Ito A.

Sebov K.

Aoi Ito faces Katherine Sebov in the Toronto round of 128 on hard. Katherine Sebov holds the paper edge — ranked #231. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC

Ito A.61%

Sebov K.39%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Ito A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Aoi Ito comes in with 1 days of rest and 116 games in 14d, vs Katherine Sebov's 5 and 65.
Last match: Aoi Ito handed Oksana Selekhmeteva a first-set bagel in a 6–0 6–7 6–4 win.
Surface form: Both 3 of 4 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Ito A.

5.3

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Sebov K.

5.7

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

7.1+168 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

2.9Hard Elo 1401

6.8Overall Elo 1549

ELO gap

3.2Overall Elo 1407

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

4.64 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

5.76 of last 10 on hard

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

0.04 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

27 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season

Ito A.Sebov K.

1st serve in·Slight edge

69%

78%

1st serve points won·Even

57%

56%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

44%

50%

Service points won·Even

53%

55%

Return points won·Even

44%

Break points saved·Even

53%

55%

Aces / match·Slight edge

1.5

0.7

Double faults / match·Dominant

4.0

1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Ito A.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Sebov K.

Sebov K.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Ito A.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Ito A.Sebov K.

Freshness·Clear edge

Ito A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 56 games (7d) · Sebov K.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Mediumbalanced pace

SlowFast

Weather forecast

21°CRain

Wind 17 km/hHumidity 96%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.