Lucrezia Stefanini vs Camila Osorio — Toronto Round of 128

Toronto · WTA · Round of 128
Lucrezia Stefanini
ITAQ
Lucrezia Stefanini
#144WTA
1527ELO
1497Hard ELO
28 yrs · 164 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWLWWWW
—
Sets
Sunday, 2 August 2026 ·
hard
Camila Osorio
COL
Camila Osorio
#56WTA
1807ELO
1780Hard ELO
24 yrs · 162 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWLLWWLW
Stefanini L.
vs
Osorio C.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC
Stefanini L.24%
Osorio C.76%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Osorio C. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
4 common opponents · Stefanini L. 1–3 · Osorio C. 4–1 · small sample
Both lost · different surfaces (Clay × Hard)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Stefanini L.
3.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Osorio C.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.5Hard Elo 1497
Surface ELO
8.5+283 Hard Elo edge
1.5Overall Elo 1527
ELO gap
8.5Overall Elo 1807
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.44 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.66 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

28 vs 24 matches

Statistics

This season
Stefanini L.Osorio C.
1st serve in·Slight edge
75%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
54%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
43%
Service points won·Slight edge
52%
57%
Return points won·Even
46%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
49%
56%
Aces / match·Slight edge
0.8
1.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.0
5.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Stefanini L.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Osorio C.

Osorio C.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Stefanini L.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Stefanini L.Osorio C.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
32
50
Break points saved·Clear edge
26
7
Break points won·Even
96
96
Deciding sets·Clear edge
60
82
Tiebreaks·Dominant
19
50

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Stefanini L.Osorio C.
Freshness·Slight edge
79
85

Stefanini L.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d) · Osorio C.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
21°CRain
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 96%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw