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Win Probability

Saturday, 1 August 2026
20 rated matches · 13 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchKristina Liutova vs Elvina Kalieva50% · 50%Toss-up · Memphis · SF · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteJessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider73% · 27%Clear favourite · Washington · SF · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches2013 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalMemphis · SF · HardKristina Liutova won 7-5 6-1Kristina Liutova50%Elvina Kalieva50%Toss-upH2H 0–1FinalWashington · QF · HardRafael Jodar won 1-6 6-1 6-4Rafael Jodar49%Lorenzo Musetti51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalW50 Dublin · SF · HardVendula Valdmannova won 6-2 6-7(2) 6-1Vendula Valdmannova49%Valentina Ryser51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalM15 Strasbourg · SF · ClayPierre Delage won 6-1 6-7(2) 6-3Pierre Delage51%Maxime Chazal49%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalLos Cabos · SF · HardDenis Shapovalov won 6-3 5-7 6-4Cameron Norrie52%Denis Shapovalov48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalM15 Sao Paulo · SF · ClayGustavo Ribeiro De Almeida won 4-1Bastian Malla53%Gustavo Ribeiro De Almeida47%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalLiberec · SF · ClayJan Kumstat won 7-5 6-4Jan Kumstat46%Sumit Nagal54%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalW35 Aldershot · SF · HardAdithya Karunaratne won 6-3 3-6 6-3Adithya Karunaratne54%Naiktha Bains46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalVancouver · F · HardTaylah Preston won 7-6(5) 6-3Maddison Inglis44%Taylah Preston56%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalM25 Wetzlar · SF · ClayGeoffrey Blancaneaux won 2-6 6-4 6-2Jack Loge43%Geoffrey Blancaneaux57%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalSan Marino · SF · ClayMili Poljicak won 7-5 6-4Mili Poljicak57%Juan Pablo Varillas43%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalMemphis · SF · HardDarja Vidmanova won 6-3 6-3Darja Vidmanova58%Renata Zarazua42%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalMemphis · QF · HardDarja Vidmanova won 6-4 6-7(5) 6-1Darja Vidmanova40%Katie Volynets60%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalTargu Mures · SF · ClayLaura Samson won 7-5 6-4Lucia Bronzetti62%Laura Samson38%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalMemphis · QF · HardRenata Zarazua won 6-4 6-0Anastasia Zakharova64%Renata Zarazua36%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalLos Cabos · SF · HardArthur Gea won 7-6(7) 6-3Coleman Wong35%Arthur Gea65%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalWashington · QF · HardAlexandra Eala won 6-3 6-4Alexandra Eala34%Elina Svitolina66%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalWashington · SF · HardAlexandra Eala won 6-4 6-2Naomi Osaka67%Alexandra Eala33%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalWashington · QF · HardAlejandro Tabilo won 4-6 7-5 6-4Alejandro Tabilo31%Ben Shelton69%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalWashington · SF · HardJessica Pegula won 7-5 6-4Jessica Pegula73%Diana Shnaider27%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–4
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 31 Jul10 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 12.2 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days31 Jul 2026Bonn · QFJamie Mackenzie beat Jurij Rodionov 7-6(5) 6-4Pre-match: Jamie Mackenzie 10%Surprise score90

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.