Win probability

Saturday, 1 August 2026

20 matches selected · 12 tournaments · model last ran 19:50 UTC

Umpiry rates 20 matches on Saturday, 1 August 2026. The closest is Kristina Liutova v Elvina Kalieva at 50 % — the model’s most uncertain call of the day. The most one-sided is Jessica Pegula v Diana Shnaider at 73 %. Probabilities come from a per-tour model trained on Elo, surface Elo, recent serve and return form and layoff.

Rated matches · ordered closest first
Time	Tournament	Round	Match	Probability	Verdict	H2H
18:10	Memphis WTA · hard	SF	Liutova K.Kalieva E.	50 %50 %	Toss-up	1–0
22:30	Washington ATP · hard	QF	Musetti L.Jodar R.	51 %49 %	Toss-up	0–2
14:30	M15 Strasbourg ITF · clay	SF	Delage P.Chazal M.	51 %49 %	Toss-up	1–1
09:40	W35 Aldershot ITF · hard	SF	Saigo R.Klimovicova L.	51 %49 %	Toss-up	1–0
12:35	W50 Dublin ITF · hard	SF	Ryser V.Valdmannova V.	51 %49 %	Toss-up	1–1
05:00	Los Cabos ATP · hard	SF	Norrie C.Shapovalov D.	52 %48 %	Toss-up	3–1
07:30	M15 Kursumlijska Banja 11 ITF · clay	SF	Krstic ..Maria Noce G.	52 %48 %	Toss-up	1–0
11:15	W35 Aldershot ITF · hard	SF	Karunaratne A.Bains N.	54 %46 %	Toss-up	1–0
10:00	Liberec CHALLENGER · clay	SF	Nagal S.Kumstat J.	54 %46 %	Toss-up	0–2
21:00	Vancouver CHALLENGER · hard	F	Preston T.Inglis M.	56 %44 %	Toss-up	2–2
13:20	Targu Mures CHALLENGER · clay	SF	Quevedo K.Jones F.	56 %44 %	Toss-up	2–0
16:10	San Marino CHALLENGER · clay	SF	Poljicak M.Varillas J.	57 %43 %	Toss-up	1–0
20:05	Memphis WTA · hard	SF	Vidmanova D.Zarazua R.	58 %42 %	Toss-up	1–0
01:10	Memphis WTA · hard	QF	Volynets K.Vidmanova D.	60 %40 %	Slight edge	0–1
23:35	Memphis WTA · hard	QF	Zakharova A.Zarazua R.	64 %36 %	Slight edge	0–1
02:40	Los Cabos ATP · hard	SF	Gea A.Wong C.	65 %35 %	Slight edge	1–0
23:15	Washington WTA · hard	QF	Svitolina E.Eala A.	66 %34 %	Slight edge	0–2
19:55	Washington WTA · hard	SF	Osaka N.Eala A.	67 %33 %	Clear favourite	0–1
01:15	Washington ATP · hard	QF	Shelton B.Tabilo A.	69 %31 %	Clear favourite	0–1
18:10	Washington WTA · hard	SF	Pegula J.Shnaider D.	73 %27 %	Clear favourite	4–1

Rated matches · ordered most one-sided first
Time	Tournament	Round	Match	Probability	Verdict	H2H
18:10	Washington WTA · hard	SF	Pegula J.Shnaider D.	73 %27 %	Clear favourite	4–1

How to read this

Each row gives the model’s probability that the favourite wins, and the verdict says the same thing in words. Rows are ordered by how close the model thinks the match is, so the top of the table is where it is least sure. A 70 % favourite losing is not a broken model — it is the 30 %. Probabilities are not odds and take no account of any market.

How often the model has been right

Umpiry win-probability model accuracy by tour family, measured on the predictions the model made
Tour	Correct
ATP / WTA	66 %
Challenger (men)	64 %
Challenger (women)	68 %
ITF (men)	66 %
ITF (women)	64 %

Measured on the predictions the model actually made, not on a backtest — see Methodology.

Yesterday

Friday, 31 July 2026 · 20 matches

Favourites won

10 / 20

Model expected

12.2

The model expected 12.2 favourites to win; 10 did. See yesterday’s page.

Biggest shock, last 7 days

31 Jul

Bonn

CHALLENGER · clay

Jamie Mackenzie beat Jurij Rodionov

Surprise score

Questions

How is the probability calculated?: A separate model for each tour, trained on Elo, surface-specific Elo, recent serve and return form and time since the player’s last match. It runs several times a day; the time of the last run is at the top of this page.
How often is the model right?: We publish it. The table above gives the hit rate for each tour family, measured on the predictions the model actually made — see Methodology for how it is computed.
Why are the closest matches at the top?: Rows are ordered by distance from 50 %, so the table opens where the model is least sure. “Most one-sided” reverses the order and groups the rows by tournament.
Is this a betting tip?: No. The page shows a model’s probability and how often that model has been right. There are no odds, no comparison with a market and no suggested stake.