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Win Probability

Friday, 31 July 2026
20 rated matches · 11 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchLaura Samson vs Mia Ristic49% · 51%Toss-up · Targu Mures · QF · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteNaomi Osaka vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto78% · 22%Clear favourite · Washington · QF · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches2011 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalTargu Mures · QF · ClayLaura Samson won 7-6(0) 4-6 6-2Laura Samson49%Mia Ristic51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalM15 Brisbane 2 · QF · HardMoerani Bouzige won 6-2 7-5Shinji Hazawa52%Moerani Bouzige48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalM25 Wetzlar · QF · ClayJack Loge won 6-2 6-2Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco52%Jack Loge48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalW75 Hechingen · QF · ClayNuria Brancaccio won 6-3 3-6 6-1Nuria Brancaccio48%Nastasja Schunk52%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalM25 Bolzano · SF · ClaySebastian Sorger won 6-3 6-4Sebastian Sorger48%Alexander Weis52%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalWashington · R16 · HardDiana Shnaider won 6-1 6-2Diana Shnaider53%Anastasia Potapova47%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalW75 Hechingen · QF · ClayBarbora Palicova won 6-1 6-3Katerina Tsygourova53%Barbora Palicova47%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalW35 Aldershot · QF · HardAdithya Karunaratne won 3-6 6-1 6-4Hannah Klugman46%Adithya Karunaratne54%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalSan Marino · QF · ClayMili Poljicak won 7-6(3) 6-7(4) 7-5Alexandre Muller46%Mili Poljicak54%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalLos Cabos · QF · HardColeman Wong won 6-1 7-5Coleman Wong38%Jenson Brooksby62%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalMemphis · QF · HardElvina Kalieva won 6-1 2-6 6-3Elvina Kalieva37%Peyton Stearns63%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalWashington · QF · HardBrandon Nakashima won 7-6(5) 6-4Alex De Minaur64%Brandon Nakashima36%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–3FinalLos Cabos · QF · HardArthur Gea won 6-7(11) 6-4 6-0Francisco Cerundolo65%Arthur Gea35%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalLos Cabos · QF · HardDenis Shapovalov won 6-4 6-2Denis Shapovalov67%Dalibor Svrcina33%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalWashington · QF · HardTaylor Fritz won 6-1 3-6 7-6(6)Taylor Fritz67%Alex Michelsen33%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–2FinalWashington · QF · HardDiana Shnaider won 6-3 6-4Diana Shnaider67%Liudmila Samsonova33%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–1FinalWashington · R16 · HardBen Shelton won 6-7(3) 6-3 6-4Ugo Humbert32%Ben Shelton68%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalWashington · R16 · HardElina Svitolina won 7-6(4) 6-4Polina Kudermetova23%Elina Svitolina77%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalWashington · QF · HardJessica Pegula won 6-3 7-5Jessica Pegula77%Anna Kalinskaya23%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–5FinalWashington · QF · HardNaomi Osaka won 4-6 6-4 6-3Elisabetta Cocciaretto22%Naomi Osaka78%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–2
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 30 Jul11 of 18 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 12.1 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days30 Jul 2026W15 Bielsko Biala · R16P. Berezina beat Georgia Andreea Craciun 6-2 3-6 6-3Pre-match: P. Berezina 14%Surprise score86

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.