Alexandre Muller vs Mili PoljicakSan Marino Quarter-final

San Marino · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#136ATP
1665ELO
1628Clay ELO
$426kYTD
$4.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLLLLL
1 — 2
Sets
Friday, 31 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 3 · 1st on
#264ATP
1471ELO
1442Clay ELO
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWWLWL
Muller A.
6-7 7-6 5-7
Poljicak M.
Muller A.
637751
Poljicak M.
776472

Mili Poljicak defeated Alexandre Muller in the quarterfinals of the San Marino tournament on clay, winning 7-6, 6-7, 7-5. Poljicak hit 17 aces and committed 2 double faults, while Muller had 6 aces and 5 double faults. Poljicak won 83% of first-serve points and converted 43% of break points, Muller converted 100% of break points; Poljicak had 3 service breaks to Muller's 2.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
65%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
49%
Service points won·Even
59%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
42%
Break points saved·Even
62%
58%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.9
4.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.7
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
72
23
Break points saved·Clear edge
90
77
Break points won·Dominant
46
7
Deciding sets·Dominant
95
13
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
84
69

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Muller A.46%
Poljicak M.54%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.3+187 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.7Clay Elo 1442
7.4Overall Elo 1664
ELO gap
2.6Overall Elo 1471
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.92 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.25 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
100
100

Muller A.: 16 days rest · Poljicak M.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
33°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 28%

Draw