Elvina Kalieva vs Peyton Stearns — Memphis Quarter-final

Memphis · WTA · Quarter-final
USA
Elvina Kalieva
#132WTA
1569ELO
1540Hard ELO
23 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLLWLL
—
Sets
Friday, 31 July 2026 ·
hard
Peyton Stearns
USA7
Peyton Stearns
#58WTA
1804ELO
1755Hard ELO
$476kYTD
$3.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLWLWWLW
Kalieva E.
vs
Stearns P.

Elvina Kalieva faces Peyton Stearns in the Memphis quarter-final on hard. Peyton Stearns is the paper favourite — ranked #58, a roughly 220-point hard Elo advantage — but Elvina Kalieva has won their only previous meeting.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Kalieva E.37%
Stearns P.63%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Stearns P. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
3 common opponents · Kalieva E. 1–2 · Stearns P. 1–3 · small sample
Both lost · same surface, 0 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kalieva E.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Stearns P.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.3Hard Elo 1540
Surface ELO
7.7+215 Hard Elo edge
2.1Overall Elo 1569
ELO gap
7.9Overall Elo 1804
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
7.37 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.98 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
5.3Won 55% in Usa (157)
Country comfort
6.1Won 68% in Usa (125)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

38 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
Kalieva E.Stearns P.
1st serve in·Even
56%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
46%
Service points won·Even
59%
58%
Return points won·Even
43%
42%
Break points saved·Even
55%
54%
Aces / match·Even
4.1
4.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.4
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kalieva E.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Stearns P.

Stearns P.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Kalieva E.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Kalieva E.Stearns P.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
18
48
Break points saved·Even
28
30
Break points won·Slight edge
87
96
Deciding sets·Even
36
34
Tiebreaks·Dominant
15
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Kalieva E.Stearns P.
Freshness·Clear edge
67
81

Kalieva E.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d) · Stearns P.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
32°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 57%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-07-29W25 DallasQFhardElvina Kalieva7-5 2-6 6-4

Draw