Diana Shnaider vs Anastasia PotapovaWashington Round of 16

Washington · WTA · Round of 16
#17WTA
1891ELO
1833Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$6.3MCAREER
22 yrs · 170 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLWLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 31 July 2026 ·
hard
JOHN HARRIS · 5th on
#27WTA
1904ELO
1804Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$6.6MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLWLWW
Shnaider D.
6-1 6-2
Potapova A.
Shnaider D.
662
Potapova A.
120

Diana Shnaider defeated Anastasia Potapova 6-1, 6-2 in the Round of 16 at the Washington tournament. Shnaider did not hit an ace and did not commit a double fault, while Potapova had 2 aces and 8 double faults. Shnaider won 6 service breaks to Potapova's 2.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-04BrisbaneR32hardDiana Shnaider6-1 6-3
2024-04-22MadridR128clayAnastasia Potapova7-5 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
44%
Service points won·Even
58%
57%
Return points won·Even
44%
45%
Break points saved·Even
57%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.3
3.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.6
4.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
83
64
Break points saved·Clear edge
65
49
Break points won·Slight edge
98
90
Deciding sets·Even
90
94
Tiebreaks·Dominant
85
26

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Shnaider D.53%
Potapova A.47%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.4+29 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Hard Elo 1804
4.8Overall Elo 1891
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1904
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
4.65 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.66 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
70
85

Shnaider D.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d) · Potapova A.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
26°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 53%

Draw