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Win Probability

Thursday, 30 July 2026
18 rated matches · 6 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchSamuele Pieri vs Federico Agustin Gomez50% · 50%Toss-up · Bonn · R16 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAlex De Minaur vs Cruz Hewitt90% · 10%Strong favourite · Washington · R16 · Analyze match →
Rated that day18 matches186 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalBonn · R16 · ClayFederico Agustin Gomez won 6-3 6-3Samuele Pieri50%Federico Agustin Gomez50%Toss-upH2H 0–1FinalBonn · R16 · ClayMatheus Pucinelli De Almeida won 6-2 7-6(5)Henri Squire51%Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalLos Cabos · R16 · HardArthur Gea won 0-6 6-4 6-0Arthur Gea52%Michael Zheng48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalMemphis · R16 · HardRenata Zarazua won 6-4 6-4Tatjana Maria45%Renata Zarazua55%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalVancouver · R16 · HardMark Lajal won 7-6(3) 7-5Mark Lajal55%Clement Chidekh45%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalMemphis · R16 · HardKristina Liutova won 3-6 6-3 6-3Kristina Liutova44%Maya Joint56%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalLos Cabos · R16 · HardDalibor Svrcina won 3-0Dalibor Svrcina38%Luciano Darderi62%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 2–4FinalWashington · R16 · HardAlejandro Tabilo won 6-3 7-6(6)Terence Atmane37%Alejandro Tabilo63%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalWashington · R16 · HardAnna Kalinskaya won 1-6 6-3 7-6(7)Janice Tjen35%Anna Kalinskaya65%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalWashington · R16 · HardBrandon Nakashima won 7-6(5) 3-6 6-4Brandon Nakashima33%Jakub Mensik67%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 2–2FinalWashington · R16 · HardNaomi Osaka won 6-3 3-1Ashlyn Krueger32%Naomi Osaka68%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalLos Cabos · R16 · HardFrancisco Cerundolo won 6-7(4) 4-3Francisco Cerundolo73%Tristan Boyer27%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalLos Cabos · R16 · HardBernard Tomic won 6-2 6-4Bernard Tomic23%Karen Khachanov77%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalWashington · R16 · HardRafael Jodar won 6-3 6-2Rafael Jodar78%Kei Nishikori22%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalLos Cabos · R16 · HardColeman Wong won 1-6 6-3 6-4Jiri Lehecka79%Coleman Wong21%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalWashington · R16 · HardAlex Michelsen won 6-4 7-6(3)Alex Michelsen80%Adrian Mannarino20%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–1FinalWashington · R16 · HardJessica Pegula won 3-6 6-3 6-0Jessica Pegula88%Magdalena Frech12%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 5–0FinalWashington · R16 · HardAlex De Minaur won 6-2 6-3Alex De Minaur90%Cruz Hewitt10%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 29 Jul13 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 12.2 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days29 Jul 2026W75 Lexington · R32Olivia Lincer beat Hina Inoue 6-4 6-1Pre-match: Olivia Lincer 7%Surprise score93

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.