Alex De Minaur vs Cruz Hewitt — Washington Round of 16

Washington · ATP · Round of 16
Alex De Minaur
AUS1
Alex De Minaur
#6ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWLWWLW
—
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
AUS
Cruz Hewitt
#612ATP
1311ELO
1293Hard ELO
17 yrs
Last 10
WWWWWWWWLW
De Minaur A.
vs
Hewitt C.

Alex De Minaur faces Cruz Hewitt in the Washington round of 16 on hard. Alex De Minaur is the paper favourite — ranked #6, a roughly 640-point hard Elo advantage — but Cruz Hewitt rides a 3-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
De Minaur A.90%
Hewitt C.10%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · De Minaur A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
  • Win streak: Cruz Hewitt arrives on a 3-match winning run.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
2 common opponents · De Minaur A. 2–1 · Hewitt C. 1–1 · small sample
De Minaur A. better · same surface▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
De Minaur A.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Hewitt C.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
10.0+643 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Hard Elo 1292
10.0Overall Elo 1961
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1311
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.47 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.05 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

36 vs 6 matches

Statistics

This season
De Minaur A.Hewitt C.
1st serve in·Even
57%
54%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
53%
Service points won·Even
64%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
41%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
61%
Aces / match·Even
4.1
4.2
Double faults / match·Even
3.0
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 6). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
De Minaur A.serving85% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Hewitt C.

Hewitt C.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

Serve advantage — De Minaur A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
De Minaur A.Hewitt C.
Freshness·
—
74

Hewitt C.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 48 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°CClear
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 50%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw