Dalibor Svrcina vs Luciano DarderiLos Cabos Round of 16

Los Cabos · ATP · Round of 16
#116ATP
1640ELO
1624Hard ELO
$304kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
23 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWLLWWWL
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
#23ATP
1835ELO
1678Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$4.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLWWWWL
Svrcina D.
vs
Darderi L.

Dalibor Svrcina faces Luciano Darderi in the Los Cabos round of 16 on hard. Luciano Darderi holds the paper edge — ranked #23, a roughly 50-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Svrcina D.38%
Darderi L.62%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Darderi L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
4 common opponents · Svrcina D. 2–2 · Darderi L. 2–3 · small sample
Both lost · same surface, 44 days apart
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.3Hard Elo 1624
Surface ELO
5.7+54 Hard Elo edge
2.6Overall Elo 1640
ELO gap
7.4Overall Elo 1834
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.86 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.94 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

23 vs 34 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
64%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
44%
37%
Break points saved·Even
60%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.8
6.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.9
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Svrcina D.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Darderi L.

Darderi L.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Svrcina D.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
34
59
Break points saved·Dominant
44
84
Break points won·Dominant
90
14
Deciding sets·Dominant
27
95
Tiebreaks·Dominant
30
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
100
57

Svrcina D.: 15 days rest · Darderi L.: 4 days rest · 4 matches, 92 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
19°COvercast
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 90%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw