Bernard Tomic vs Karen Khachanov — Los Cabos Round of 16

Los Cabos · ATP · Round of 16
Bernard Tomic
AUS
Bernard Tomic
#171ATP
1475ELO
1441Hard ELO
$117kYTD
$6.8MCAREER
33 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLWWWWWL
—
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
Karen Khachanov
RUS4
Karen Khachanov
#26ATP
1828ELO
1783Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$23MCAREER
30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLLLWWLW
Tomic B.
vs
Khachanov K.

Bernard Tomic faces Karen Khachanov in the Los Cabos round of 16 on hard. Karen Khachanov holds the paper edge — ranked #26, a roughly 340-point hard Elo advantage.

Around the match

  • “About 10 days ago I hit a bit of a brick wall. I said this was going to be my last year, so I guess I have to reassess a few things now.”

    Tomic B.Fox Sports ↗

  • “Now that I won, I'm going to have to go back to the table. I'm probably going to play another 20 years.”

    Tomic B.Fox Sports ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Tomic B.22%
Khachanov K.78%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Khachanov K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Tomic B.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Khachanov K.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.7Hard Elo 1441
Surface ELO
9.3+342 Hard Elo edge
0.6Overall Elo 1474
ELO gap
9.4Overall Elo 1828
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.57 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.34 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

11 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season
Tomic B.Khachanov K.
1st serve in·Even
65%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
56%
54%
Service points won·Even
65%
68%
Return points won·Even
35%
33%
Break points saved·Even
66%
68%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.4
8.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.4
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (11 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Tomic B.serving91% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Khachanov K.

Khachanov K.serving92% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Tomic B.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Tomic B.Khachanov K.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
51
79
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
97
Break points won·Dominant
6
80
Deciding sets·Slight edge
83
78
Tiebreaks·Even
84
84

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Tomic B.Khachanov K.
Freshness·
60
—

Tomic B.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
18°COvercast
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 93%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw