Arthur Gea vs Michael Zheng — Los Cabos Round of 16

Los Cabos · ATP · Round of 16

FRA

Arthur Gea

#127ATP

1597ELO

1610Hard ELO

$359kYTD

$611kCAREER

21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWWWWLWWL

—

Sets

Thursday, 30 July 2026 · 04:30

hard

USA

Michael Zheng

#118ATP

1695ELO

1672Hard ELO

$310kYTD

$502kCAREER

22 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWWWLWWWW

Gea A.

Zheng M.

Arthur Gea faces Michael Zheng in the Los Cabos round of 16 on hard. Michael Zheng holds the paper edge — ranked #118, a roughly 60-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC

Gea A.50%

Zheng M.50%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Arthur Gea 87 games in 14 days, Michael Zheng 89.
Surface form: Both 4 of 5 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Gea A.

5.4

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Zheng M.

5.6

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

4.2Hard Elo 1610

Surface ELO

5.8+62 Hard Elo edge

3.8Overall Elo 1596

ELO gap

6.2Overall Elo 1695

7.0Leads 1–0 on hard

H2H

3.0Trails 0–1 on hard

7.88 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

6.26 of last 10 on hard

Fatigue & Travel

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

30 vs 16 matches

Statistics

This season

Gea A.Zheng M.

1st serve in·Slight edge

58%

64%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

75%

70%

2nd serve points won·Even

51%

49%

Service points won·Even

65%

62%

Return points won·Even

39%

Break points saved·Slight edge

63%

57%

Aces / match·Slight edge

6.3

5.4

Double faults / match·Dominant

3.7

1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Gea A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Zheng M.

Zheng M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Gea A.

Serve advantage — Gea A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Gea A.Zheng M.

Freshness·Clear edge

Gea A.: 10 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Zheng M.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 72 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Mediumbalanced pace

SlowFast

Weather forecast

19°COvercast

Wind 2 km/hHumidity 94%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.