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Win Probability

Wednesday, 29 July 2026
20 rated matches · 7 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchHarry Wendelken vs Murphy Cassone49% · 51%Toss-up · Vancouver · R32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAnastasia Potapova vs Venus Williams92% · 8%Strong favourite · Washington · R32 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches207 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalVancouver · R32 · HardHarry Wendelken won 6-5Harry Wendelken49%Murphy Cassone51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalLos Cabos · R32 · HardJenson Brooksby won 6-4 6-4Jenson Brooksby51%Corentin Moutet49%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalMemphis · R16 · HardAnastasia Zakharova won 6-4 6-3Camila Osorio51%Anastasia Zakharova49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–1FinalLiberec · R16 · ClaySumit Nagal won 6-4 6-4Petr Brunclik52%Sumit Nagal48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalWashington · R16 · HardLiudmila Samsonova won 6-2 6-2Xiyu Wang53%Liudmila Samsonova47%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–3FinalLos Cabos · R32 · HardJames Duckworth won 4-6 6-3 6-4Aidan Mayo46%James Duckworth54%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalLos Cabos · R32 · HardEdward Winter won 6-1 6-4Moise Kouame46%Edward Winter54%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalLos Cabos · R32 · HardDenis Shapovalov won 2-6 6-3 6-2Denis Shapovalov54%Rinky Hijikata46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalSan Marino · R16 · ClayMili Poljicak won 6-7(8) 6-3 6-4Mili Poljicak54%Nikoloz Basilashvili46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalLos Cabos · R32 · HardArthur Gea won 6-4 6-7(8) 6-2Soon Woo Kwon56%Arthur Gea44%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalLos Cabos · R32 · HardMichael Zheng won 6-4 6-3Michael Zheng56%Martin Landaluce44%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalLiberec · R16 · ClayMartin Krumich won 6-2 6-3Joel Schwaerzler42%Martin Krumich58%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalWashington · R16 · HardAlexandra Eala won 6-2 7-6(1)Leylah Fernandez40%Alexandra Eala60%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalMemphis · R32 · HardPeyton Stearns won 6-7(5) 6-0 6-4Mary Stoiana37%Peyton Stearns63%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalMemphis · R32 · HardRenata Zarazua won 6-4 6-1Renata Zarazua36%Mccartney Kessler64%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 4–1FinalWashington · R32 · HardAlex De Minaur won 6-4 3-6 6-3Alex De Minaur64%Stefanos Tsitsipas36%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 3–14FinalWashington · R16 · HardElisabetta Cocciaretto won 6-3 4-6 6-3Emma Navarro68%Elisabetta Cocciaretto32%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 3–1FinalWashington · R16 · HardTaylor Fritz won 6-3 6-4Taylor Fritz79%Kamil Majchrzak21%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalWashington · R16 · HardLorenzo Musetti won 6-3 5-7 6-3Aleksandar Vukic17%Lorenzo Musetti83%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalWashington · R32 · HardAnastasia Potapova won 6-3 6-3Anastasia Potapova92%Venus Williams8%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.