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Win Probability

Tuesday, 28 July 2026
20 rated matches · 4 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchColeman Wong vs Darwin Blanch54% · 46%Toss-up · Los Cabos · R32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteJakub Mensik vs Trevor Svajda87% · 13%Strong favourite · Washington · R32 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches204 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalLos Cabos · R32 · HardColeman Wong won 6-3 6-4Coleman Wong54%Darwin Blanch46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalWashington · R32 · HardAshlyn Krueger won 3-6 6-2 6-2Ashlyn Krueger55%Katie Boulter45%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 3–1FinalMemphis · R32 · HardKristina Liutova won 7-6(2) 4-6 5-4Ekaterina Alexandrova56%Kristina Liutova44%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalWashington · R32 · HardMagdalena Frech won 6-4 6-3Magdalena Frech44%Ann Li56%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 5–1FinalWashington · R32 · HardBrandon Nakashima won 6-3 6-4Brandon Nakashima57%Tomas Martin Etcheverry43%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalWashington · R32 · HardPolina Kudermetova won 5-7 7-6(4) 6-0Cristina Bucsa40%Polina Kudermetova60%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalWashington · R32 · HardAlexandra Eala won 4-6 6-4 6-1Alexandra Eala36%Qinwen Zheng64%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalWashington · R32 · HardAnna Kalinskaya won 6-4 6-1Daria Kasatkina35%Anna Kalinskaya65%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 3–2FinalWashington · R32 · HardRafael Jodar won 7-6(5) 6-3Arthur Fils68%Rafael Jodar32%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalWashington · R32 · HardJanice Tjen won 6-4 6-2Janice Tjen70%Rebecca Sramkova30%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalWashington · R32 · HardBen Shelton won 6-4 4-6 6-4Martin Damm30%Ben Shelton70%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalWashington · R32 · HardLiudmila Samsonova won 3-6 6-4 6-4Liudmila Samsonova29%Madison Keys71%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 5–2FinalWashington · R32 · HardTerence Atmane won 4-6 6-3 6-4Frances Tiafoe73%Terence Atmane27%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–3FinalWashington · R32 · HardCruz Hewitt won 6-3 6-4Marcos Giron75%Cruz Hewitt25%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalWashington · R32 · HardXiyu Wang won 7-6(3) 6-3Julieta Pareja24%Xiyu Wang76%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalWashington · R32 · HardKamil Majchrzak won 7-5 7-6(4)Kamil Majchrzak22%Tommy Paul78%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 2–1FinalWashington · R32 · HardAlex Michelsen won 6-4 7-5Alex Michelsen79%Mackenzie Mcdonald21%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalWashington · R32 · HardUgo Humbert won 6-2 7-5Ugo Humbert81%Andres Martin19%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalWashington · R32 · HardAdrian Mannarino won 7-5 6-4Adrian Mannarino17%Learner Tien83%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalWashington · R32 · HardJakub Mensik won 6-2 6-7(5) 6-3Trevor Svajda13%Jakub Mensik87%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 27 Jul10 of 15 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 9.1 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days27 Jul 2026Bonn · R32Jamie Mackenzie beat Buvaysar Gadamauri 7-6(4) 6-2Pre-match: Jamie Mackenzie 12%Surprise score88

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.