Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova — Memphis Round of 32

Memphis · WTA · Round of 32
Ekaterina Alexandrova
RUS1
Ekaterina Alexandrova
#19WTA
1844ELO
1800Hard ELO
$1.0MYTD
$11MCAREER
31 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWLWLL
—
Sets
Tuesday, 28 July 2026 ·
hard
RUSQ
Kristina Liutova
#228WTA
1681ELO
1592Hard ELO
16 yrs
Last 10
WLWWWWWWWW
Alexandrova E.
vs
Liutova K.

Ekaterina Alexandrova faces Kristina Liutova in the Memphis round of 32 on hard. Ekaterina Alexandrova is the paper favourite — ranked #19, a roughly 210-point hard Elo advantage — but Kristina Liutova rides a 12-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Alexandrova E.52%
Liutova K.48%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Win streak: Kristina Liutova arrives on a 12-match winning run.
  • Fatigue load: Kristina Liutova carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Alexandrova E.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Liutova K.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.6+207 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.4Hard Elo 1592
7.0Overall Elo 1844
ELO gap
3.0Overall Elo 1681
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.44 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
9.39 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
10.012-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
6.1Won 69% in Usa (42)
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
2.0Opponent hot: 10 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

15 vs 20 matches

Statistics

This season
Alexandrova E.Liutova K.
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
71%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
50%
Service points won·Even
58%
59%
Return points won·Clear edge
41%
53%
Break points saved·Clear edge
50%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.2
0.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.5
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Alexandrova E.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Liutova K.

Liutova K.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Alexandrova E.

Serve advantage — Liutova K.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Alexandrova E.Liutova K.
Freshness·
—
73

Liutova K.: played today · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
33°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 52%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw