UMPIRY
EN

Win Probability

Monday, 27 July 2026
15 rated matches · 7 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchKei Nishikori vs Juncheng Shang51% · 49%Toss-up · Washington · R32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteTaylor Fritz vs Zizou Bergs76% · 24%Clear favourite · Washington · R32 · Analyze match →
Rated that day15 matches157 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalWashington · R32 · HardKei Nishikori won 6-7(3) 6-3 6-4Kei Nishikori51%Juncheng Shang49%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–3FinalTargu Mures · R32 · ClayElena Ruxandra Bertea won 6-3 6-3Elena Malygina48%Elena Ruxandra Bertea52%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalTargu Mures · R32 · ClaySara Sorribes Tormo won 3-6 6-3 6-3Leyre Romero Gormaz47%Sara Sorribes Tormo53%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–3FinalBonn · R32 · ClayJan Choinski won 6-3 6-4Jan Choinski44%Francesco Passaro56%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalWashington · R32 · HardAlejandro Tabilo won 7-6(3) 4-6 6-4Alejandro Tabilo56%Tallon Griekspoor44%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalSamsun · R32 · HardRadu Albot won 6-3 6-4Radu Albot57%Benjamin Hassan43%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalLiberec · R32 · ClayNicolas Kicker won 6-2 6-4Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi57%Nicolas Kicker43%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalWashington · R32 · HardLeylah Fernandez won 6-1 6-4Leylah Fernandez57%Magda Linette43%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–4FinalLiberec · R32 · ClayJan Kumstat won 6-2 4-6 6-3Zdenek Kolar58%Jan Kumstat42%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalMemphis · R32 · HardKatie Volynets won 7-5 2-6 7-6(3)Katie Volynets60%Viktorija Golubic40%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalWashington · R32 · HardElisabetta Cocciaretto won 4-6 7-6(2) 7-6(2)Elisabetta Cocciaretto37%Clara Tauson63%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalWashington · R32 · HardLorenzo Musetti won 6-0 3-1Matteo Arnaldi31%Lorenzo Musetti69%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 6–0FinalWashington · R32 · HardAleksandar Vukic won 6-3 6-1Aleksandar Vukic27%Zachary Svajda73%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 4–2FinalWashington · R32 · HardEmma Navarro won 6-0 7-5Emma Navarro75%Sofia Kenin25%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalWashington · R32 · HardTaylor Fritz won 6-3 6-4Taylor Fritz76%Zizou Bergs24%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–2
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 26 Jul3 of 12 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 6.9 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days26 Jul 2026Samsun · SFGrigoriy Lomakin beat Viktor Markov 7-5 7-5Pre-match: Grigoriy Lomakin 19%Surprise score81

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.