Kei Nishikori vs Juncheng Shang — Washington Round of 32
Nishikori K.
Kei Nishikori faces Juncheng Shang in the Washington round of 32 on hard. Juncheng Shang is the paper favourite — ranked #270, a roughly 20-point hard Elo advantage — but Kei Nishikori has won 2 of their 3 previous meetings.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Kei Nishikori has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 89 vs 48).
- Head-to-head: Kei Nishikori leads the head-to-head 2–1. Last met at Hong Kong 2024.
- Surface form: Kei Nishikori 2 of 6, Juncheng Shang 3 of 6 on hard recently — Juncheng Shang the sharper of late.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (9 vs 6). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Conditions
Head to head
2–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-30 | Hong Kong | SF | hard | Kei Nishikori | 4-3 |
| 2024-09-18 | Chengdu | R32 | hard | Juncheng Shang | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2023-07-24 | Atlanta | R16 | hard | Kei Nishikori | 6-4 7-6 |