Aleksandar Vukic vs Zachary SvajdaWashington Round of 32

Washington · ATP · Round of 32
#102ATP
1630ELO
1597Hard ELO
$366kYTD
$3.9MCAREER
30 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWLLLW
Sets
Monday, 27 July 2026 ·
hard
#73ATP
1718ELO
1690Hard ELO
$631kYTD
$1.9MCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWLWLLW
Vukic A.
vs
Svajda Z.

Aleksandar Vukic faces Zachary Svajda in the Washington round of 32 on hard. Zachary Svajda is the paper favourite — ranked #73, leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage — but Aleksandar Vukic rides a 6-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 01:50 UTC
Vukic A.31%
Svajda Z.69%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Svajda Z. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
9 common opponents · Vukic A. 6–8 · Svajda Z. 5–5
Both lost · same surface, 43 days apart
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.8Hard Elo 1597
Surface ELO
6.2+93 Hard Elo edge
3.9Overall Elo 1630
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 1718
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
8.07 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on hard
9.06-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Country comfort
5.8Won 64% in Usa (66)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

9 vs 15 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
55%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
50%
Service points won·Even
60%
64%
Return points won·Even
30%
33%
Break points saved·Clear edge
44%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.7
6.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (9 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Vukic A.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Svajda Z.

Svajda Z.serving92% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Vukic A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
26
0
Break points saved·Clear edge
87
70
Break points won·Clear edge
1
17
Deciding sets·Clear edge
30
10
Tiebreaks·Dominant
86
16

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
70
88

Vukic A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 70 games (7d) · Svajda Z.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
31°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 44%

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-02-06DallasQ1hardZachary Svajda7-5 6-3
2022-08-23US OpenQ128hardZachary Svajda7-5 6-4

Draw