Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Kalinskaya — Washington Round of 32
RUS5
Kasatkina D.
Daria Kasatkina faces Anna Kalinskaya in the Washington round of 32 on hard. Anna Kalinskaya is the paper favourite — ranked #20, a roughly 110-point hard Elo advantage — but Daria Kasatkina has won 3 of their 4 previous meetings.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 01:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Kalinskaya A. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Anna Kalinskaya brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 34), Daria Kasatkina the stronger return game (Return Rating 82).
- Last match: Daria Kasatkina dropped the opening set before beating Tyler Smith 4–6 6–4 6–0.
- Head-to-head: Daria Kasatkina leads the head-to-head 3–1. Last met at Adelaide 2024.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadKasatkina D.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
3–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-08 | Adelaide | R16 | hard | Daria Kasatkina | 5-7 6-4 7-5 |
| 2022-10-17 | Guadalajara 2 | R16 | hard | Anna Kalinskaya | 6-2 2-6 6-3 |
| 2022-01-03 | Melbourne 2 | R32 | hard | Daria Kasatkina | 6-1 3-0 |
| 2018-07-23 | Moscow | R32 | hard | Daria Kasatkina | 6-1 6-1 |