Rafael Jodar vs Kei Nishikori — Washington Round of 16
Jodar R.
Rafael Jodar faces Kei Nishikori in the Washington round of 16 on hard. Rafael Jodar holds the paper edge — ranked #24, a roughly 190-point hard Elo advantage.
Around the match
Jodar continues his breakthrough season with a victory over injured Fils, reaching career-high ranking of No. 24 after winning maiden ATP title in Marrakech.
Jodar R.tennismajors.com ↗
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Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 01:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Jodar R. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Last match: Kei Nishikori dropped the opening set before beating Juncheng Shang 6–7 6–3 6–4.
- Fatigue load: Kei Nishikori carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 9). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadNishikori K.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.