Ashlyn Krueger vs Naomi OsakaWashington Round of 16

Washington · WTA · Round of 16
#58WTA
1791ELO
1723Hard ELO
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWWWWW
0 — 1
Sets
Retired
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
STADIUM · 4th on
#13WTA
1987ELO
1922Hard ELO
$1.8MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLWWWW
Krueger A.
3-6 1-3
Osaka N.
Krueger A.
310
Osaka N.
631

Naomi Osaka advanced to the quarterfinals of the Washington tournament with a win over Ashlyn Krueger in the Round of 16. Krueger retired during the match, trailing 6-3, 3-1. Osaka converted 40% of her break points and won two service breaks en route to the victory.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
65%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
48%
Service points won·Even
59%
62%
Return points won·Even
44%
44%
Break points saved·Even
61%
58%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.7
5.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.5
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (45 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
62
89
Break points saved·Dominant
41
85
Break points won·Clear edge
83
98
Deciding sets·Clear edge
85
97
Tiebreaks·Dominant
57
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC
Krueger A.32%
Osaka N.68%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Osaka N. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.5Hard Elo 1723
Surface ELO
7.5+198 Hard Elo edge
2.5Overall Elo 1791
ELO gap
7.5Overall Elo 1987
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
6.06 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
5.7Won 61% in Usa (98)
Country comfort
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
2.0Opponent hot: 9 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
96
69

Krueger A.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Osaka N.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 53 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
27°COvercast
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 52%

Draw