Ashlyn Krueger vs Maria SakkariOsaka Round of 32

Osaka · WTA · Round of 32
#102WTA
1791ELO
1723Hard ELO
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 13 October 2025
hard
#43WTA
1812ELO
1796Hard ELO
$901kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLWWLL
Krueger A.
2-6 6-3 6-4
Sakkari M.
Krueger A.
2662
Sakkari M.
6341

Ashlyn Krueger defeated Maria Sakkari 2-6 6-3 6-4 in the Osaka round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Maria Sakkari came in ranked #43, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Ashlyn Krueger claimed a first win over Maria Sakkari in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-09-24BeijingR128hardMaria Sakkari7-6(5) 6-7(5) 7-5

Serve vs return

This season
Krueger A.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Sakkari M.

Sakkari M.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Krueger A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Krueger A.Sakkari M.
37
Serve
24
7
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
47%
Service points won·Even
57%
57%
Return points won·Even
42%
43%
Break points saved·Even
55%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.3
2.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.4
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (71 vs 62). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
79
81
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
94
Break points won·Even
85
87
Deciding sets·Clear edge
92
76
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
66
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.6Hard Elo 1723
Surface ELO
6.4+73 Hard Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1791
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1812
0.0
H2H
10.0
3.3
Surface form
3.9
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
86
90

Krueger A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Sakkari M.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast