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Win Probability

Tuesday, 4 August 2026
20 rated matches · 2 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchBenjamin Bonzi vs Yannick Hanfmann50% · 50%Toss-up · Montreal · R128 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteIga Swiatek vs Sara Bejlek87% · 13%Strong favourite · Toronto · R64 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches202 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalMontreal · R128 · HardYannick Hanfmann won 6-1 4-6 6-2Benjamin Bonzi50%Yannick Hanfmann50%Toss-upH2H 0–1FinalToronto · R128 · HardDaria Kasatkina won 1-6 7-6(5) 7-5Xiyu Wang50%Daria Kasatkina50%Toss-upH2H 2–0FinalMontreal · R64 · HardAlexander Blockx won Jaume Munar51%Alexander Blockx49%Toss-upNo prior meetingsFinalMontreal · R128 · HardJuan Manuel Cerundolo won 6-4 6-2Juan Manuel Cerundolo47%Hamad Medjedovic53%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–1FinalMontreal · R128 · HardGabriel Diallo won 6-7(1) 6-3 6-2Gabriel Diallo54%Kyrian Jacquet46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalMontreal · R128 · HardSebastian Baez won 7-5 6-3Sebastian Baez54%Mattia Bellucci46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalToronto · R64 · HardViktorija Golubic won 5-7 6-2 6-3Donna Vekic55%Viktorija Golubic45%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalMontreal · R128 · HardJacob Fearnley won 7-6(3) 6-4Jacob Fearnley55%Adrian Mannarino45%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalToronto · R64 · HardEkaterina Alexandrova won 6-3 7-6(4)Camila Osorio56%Ekaterina Alexandrova44%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–3FinalMontreal · R128 · HardZachary Svajda won 4-6 6-4 3-0Zachary Svajda44%Denis Shapovalov56%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalToronto · R64 · HardTalia Gibson won 7-5 6-1Maja Chwalinska43%Talia Gibson57%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalMontreal · R128 · HardBotic Van De Zandschulp won 6-2 3-6 6-3Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard43%Botic Van De Zandschulp57%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalMontreal · R128 · HardMiomir Kecmanovic won 6-4 4-6 7-6(5)Michael Zheng58%Miomir Kecmanovic42%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalMontreal · R128 · HardJenson Brooksby won 6-3 6-4Adam Walton42%Jenson Brooksby58%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalToronto · R64 · HardAnna Kalinskaya won 6-2 6-7(3) 6-4Anna Kalinskaya61%Mccartney Kessler39%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalToronto · R128 · HardPanna Udvardy won 2-6 7-6(3) 2-0Panna Udvardy37%Eva Lys63%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 2–1FinalMontreal · R128 · HardAlexei Popyrin won 4-6 7-5 6-3Alexei Popyrin63%Roman Andres Burruchaga37%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalMontreal · R64 · HardJuncheng Shang won 7-5 4-6 7-6(5)Juncheng Shang35%Andrey Rublev65%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalToronto · R64 · HardElina Svitolina won 6-7(5) 7-6(4) 6-4Elina Svitolina77%Jessica Bouzas Maneiro23%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–4FinalToronto · R64 · HardIga Swiatek won 6-0 6-3Sara Bejlek13%Iga Swiatek87%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%
Yesterday · 3 Aug11 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 11.7 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days2 Aug 2026Toronto · R128Maiko Uchijima beat Cristina Bucsa 6-3 6-4Pre-match: Maiko Uchijima 12%Surprise score88

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.