Juncheng Shang vs Andrey Rublev — Montreal Round of 64

Montreal · ATP · Round of 64
CHNPR
Juncheng Shang
#281ATP
1746ELO
1698Hard ELO
21 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLLLLWLWWL
—
Sets
Tuesday, 4 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 2 · 3rd on
Andrey Rublev
RUS10
Andrey Rublev
#16ATP
1902ELO
1849Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWWLLLL
Shang J.
vs
Rublev A.

Juncheng Shang faces Andrey Rublev in the Montreal round of 64 on hard. Andrey Rublev holds the paper edge — ranked #16, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Shang J.35%
Rublev A.65%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Rublev A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
4 common opponents · Shang J. 3–1 · Rublev A. 5–1 · small sample
Rublev A. better · same surface▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Shang J.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Rublev A.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.1Hard Elo 1698
Surface ELO
6.9+150 Hard Elo edge
3.0Overall Elo 1746
ELO gap
7.0Overall Elo 1902
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
3.94 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.16 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

8 vs 36 matches

Statistics

This season
Shang J.Rublev A.
1st serve in·Even
62%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
52%
Service points won·Even
65%
66%
Return points won·Slight edge
29%
38%
Break points saved·Even
67%
69%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.5
7.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (8 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Shang J.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Rublev A.serving94% hold

wins 74% of points on serve vs Shang J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Shang J.Rublev A.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
58
82
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
98
Break points won·Dominant
15
62
Deciding sets·Clear edge
83
96
Tiebreaks·Even
89
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Shang J.Rublev A.
Freshness·Slight edge
83
94

Shang J.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Rublev A.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
24°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 63%

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-01-01Hong KongSFhardAndrey Rublev4-6 6-2 6-3

Draw