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Win Probability

Wednesday, 5 August 2026
20 rated matches · 2 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchClara Tauson vs Nikola Bartunkova50% · 50%Toss-up · Toronto · R64 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAryna Sabalenka vs Maiko Uchijima94% · 6%Strong favourite · Toronto · R64 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches202 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalToronto · R64 · HardNikola Bartunkova won 6-3 6-4Clara Tauson50%Nikola Bartunkova50%Toss-upH2H 1–0FinalToronto · R64 · HardMaria Sakkari won 6-3 6-2Maria Sakkari50%Zeynep Sonmez50%Toss-upH2H 3–1FinalMontreal · R64 · HardNuno Borges won 6-4 6-2Nuno Borges51%Tomas Martin Etcheverry49%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–4FinalMontreal · R64 · HardLuciano Darderi won 6-4 2-3Luciano Darderi52%Gabriel Diallo48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalMontreal · R64 · HardMatteo Arnaldi won 7-5 2-6 6-4Fabian Marozsan48%Matteo Arnaldi52%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–4FinalMontreal · R64 · HardHubert Hurkacz won 6-4 7-6Hubert Hurkacz54%Alejandro Tabilo46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalMontreal · R64 · HardJoao Fonseca won 7-6(3) 7-5Stefanos Tsitsipas45%Joao Fonseca55%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalMontreal · R64 · HardCameron Norrie won 6-3 6-3Ignacio Buse44%Cameron Norrie56%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalMontreal · R64 · HardAlex Michelsen won 6-3 6-4Alex Michelsen57%Francisco Cerundolo43%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalMontreal · R64 · HardArthur Rinderknech won 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4Miomir Kecmanovic41%Arthur Rinderknech59%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 3–1FinalMontreal · R64 · HardYannick Hanfmann won 7-6(5) 7-6(2)Flavio Cobolli64%Yannick Hanfmann36%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalToronto · R64 · HardAnn Li won 7-6(2) 6-3Ann Li67%Kayla Cross33%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalMontreal · R64 · HardFrances Tiafoe won 5-7 6-2 6-2Frances Tiafoe75%Marin Cilic25%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalMontreal · R64 · HardBen Shelton won 6-3 7-5Jenson Brooksby23%Ben Shelton77%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalMontreal · R64 · HardArthur Fils won 6-4 3-6 6-1Zachary Svajda22%Arthur Fils78%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalMontreal · R64 · HardThiago Agustin Tirante won 7-5 6-3Thiago Agustin Tirante17%Taylor Fritz83%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalToronto · R64 · HardCoco Gauff won 6-2 7-5Kayla Day16%Coco Gauff84%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalToronto · R64 · HardMirra Andreeva won 6-0 6-2Mirra Andreeva85%Karolina Pliskova15%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalToronto · R64 · HardJessica Pegula won 3-6 6-3 6-2Jessica Pegula88%Magdalena Frech12%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 5–0FinalToronto · R64 · HardAryna Sabalenka won 6-3 6-3Aryna Sabalenka94%Maiko Uchijima6%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%
Yesterday · 4 Aug10 of 19 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 11.3 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days4 Aug 2026Montreal · R128Terence Atmane beat Jack Draper 6-3 2-6 6-2Pre-match: Terence Atmane 15%Surprise score85

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.