Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca — Montreal Round of 64
BRA22
Tsitsipas S.
Stefanos Tsitsipas faces Joao Fonseca in the Montreal round of 64 on hard. Joao Fonseca holds the paper edge — ranked #27, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 110-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Stefanos Tsitsipas rising, Joao Fonseca cooling.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Stefanos Tsitsipas has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 88 vs 66).
- Head-to-head: Joao Fonseca leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Davis Cup WG1 R1: GRE vs BRA 2025.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadTsitsipas S.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 67 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | Davis Cup WG1 R1: GRE vs BRA | RR | hard | Joao Fonseca | 6-4 3-6 7-5 |