Aryna Sabalenka vs Maiko Uchijima — Toronto Round of 64

Toronto · WTA · Round of 64
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$5.1MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 5 August 2026 ·
hard
JPN
Maiko Uchijima
22 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLWWWLWL
Sabalenka A.
6-3 6-3
Uchijima M.
Sabalenka A.
662
Uchijima M.
330

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Maiko Uchijima in the Round of 64 at the Toronto hard-court tournament. Sabalenka won the match 6-3, 6-3. In the match, Sabalenka had 4 aces and 6 double faults, while Uchijima had 4 aces and 2 double faults; Sabalenka converted 55% of break points and Uchijima converted 50%, with Sabalenka securing 6 service breaks to Uchijima's 3.

Around the match

  • “I want to get completely drunk, forget about tennis. And try to get better.”

    Sabalenka A.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “I have huge hopes for the second half. I really hope it's going to work out well on the hard court again.”

    Sabalenka A.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Sabalenka A.Uchijima M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
73%
1st serve points won·Dominant
72%
40%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
46%
Service points won·Clear edge
65%
42%
Return points won·Slight edge
45%
39%
Break points saved·Dominant
64%
0%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.6
0.0
Double faults / match·Even
1.8
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 1). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Sabalenka A.94%
Uchijima M.6%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sabalenka A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sabalenka A.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Uchijima M.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
10.010 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.04 of last 6 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Sabalenka A.Uchijima M.
Freshness·Slight edge
69
80

Sabalenka A.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 70 games (7d) · Uchijima M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
24°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 61%

Draw