Jenson Brooksby vs Ben SheltonMontreal Round of 64

Montreal · ATP · Round of 64
#74ATP
1694ELO
1682Hard ELO
$546kYTD
$3.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLWWLWL
Sets
Wednesday, 5 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 2nd on
#10ATP
1960ELO
1922Hard ELO
$2.2MYTD
$14MCAREER
23 yrs · 193 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWWLWLWWWW
Brooksby J.
vs
Shelton B.

Jenson Brooksby faces Ben Shelton in the Montreal round of 64 on hard. Ben Shelton holds the paper edge — ranked #10, a roughly 240-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Brooksby J.24%
Shelton B.76%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Shelton B. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
11 common opponents · Brooksby J. 3–9 · Shelton B. 13–5
Both lost · different surfaces (Grass × Hard)
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.0Hard Elo 1682
Surface ELO
8.0+239 Hard Elo edge
1.7Overall Elo 1694
ELO gap
8.3Overall Elo 1960
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.16 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.47 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

21 vs 35 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
68%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
77%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
60%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
71%
Return points won·Even
35%
31%
Break points saved·Clear edge
52%
74%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.5
11.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.8
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Brooksby J.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Shelton B.

Shelton B.serving95% hold

wins 75% of points on serve vs Brooksby J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
87
78
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
100
Break points won·Dominant
82
45
Deciding sets·Even
94
96
Tiebreaks·Even
98
94

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
74
70

Brooksby J.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 77 games (7d) · Shelton B.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 64 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
24°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 68%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw