UMPIRY
EN

Win Probability

Thursday, 6 August 2026
20 rated matches · 2 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchLuciano Darderi vs Juncheng Shang47% · 53%Toss-up · Montreal · R32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteJessica Pegula vs Kamilla Rakhimova87% · 13%Strong favourite · Toronto · R32 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches202 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalMontreal · R32 · HardLuciano Darderi won 4-6 6-1 6-4Luciano Darderi47%Juncheng Shang53%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalToronto · R32 · HardDiana Shnaider won 6-3 6-3Anna Kalinskaya46%Diana Shnaider54%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalMontreal · R32 · HardNuno Borges won 6-4 6-2Yannick Hanfmann46%Nuno Borges54%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalToronto · R32 · HardMarta Kostyuk won 6-3 6-1Marta Kostyuk58%Madison Keys42%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalToronto · R32 · HardEkaterina Alexandrova won 5-7 6-1 6-3Talia Gibson61%Ekaterina Alexandrova39%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalMontreal · R64 · HardTerence Atmane won 6-4 7-6Karen Khachanov64%Terence Atmane36%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalMontreal · R64 · HardDaniel Merida Aguilar won 6-3 6-3Ugo Humbert65%Daniel Merida Aguilar35%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalToronto · R64 · HardLeylah Fernandez won 6-2 6-2Renata Zarazua30%Leylah Fernandez70%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–3FinalMontreal · R32 · HardCameron Norrie won 5-7 7-6 6-1Cameron Norrie28%Alex De Minaur72%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 3–5FinalToronto · R64 · HardLiudmila Samsonova won 6-1 7-5Liudmila Samsonova27%Barbora Krejcikova73%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–4FinalToronto · R64 · HardMaya Joint won 6-4 6-4Sorana Cirstea74%Maya Joint26%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalToronto · R64 · HardCaty Mcnally won 7-6 6-1Linda Noskova77%Caty Mcnally23%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalMontreal · R64 · HardBotic Van De Zandschulp won 6-3 7-6(5)Daniil Medvedev78%Botic Van De Zandschulp22%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–4FinalToronto · R64 · HardAlexandra Eala won 6-1 4-6 6-2Alycia Parks22%Alexandra Eala78%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalMontreal · R64 · HardTommy Paul won 6-4 7-6(5)Valentin Royer20%Tommy Paul80%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalMontreal · R64 · HardJakub Mensik won 6-3 3-6 6-3Jacob Fearnley19%Jakub Mensik81%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalMontreal · R64 · HardLearner Tien won 6-3 0-6 6-3Learner Tien81%Gael Monfils19%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalMontreal · R32 · HardArthur Fils won 6-3 6-2Mariano Navone18%Arthur Fils82%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalToronto · R32 · HardIga Swiatek won 6-2 6-1Viktorija Golubic17%Iga Swiatek83%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–1FinalToronto · R32 · HardJessica Pegula won 6-4 6-0Jessica Pegula87%Kamilla Rakhimova13%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%
Yesterday · 5 Aug17 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 13.3 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days5 Aug 2026Montreal · R64Tallon Griekspoor beat Alexander Zverev 6-7 6-2 6-4Pre-match: Tallon Griekspoor 8%Surprise score92

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.