Mariano Navone vs Arthur Fils — Montreal Round of 32

Montreal · ATP · Round of 32
Mariano Navone
ARG
Mariano Navone
#44ATP
1822ELO
1693Hard ELO
$722kYTD
$3.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLLLLL
—
Sets
Thursday, 6 August 2026 ·
hard
Arthur Fils
FRA18
Arthur Fils
#24ATP
2001ELO
1930Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$7.9MCAREER
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWLLWWWW
Navone M.
vs
Fils A.

Mariano Navone faces Arthur Fils in the Montreal round of 32 on hard. Arthur Fils holds the paper edge — ranked #24, a roughly 240-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC
Navone M.18%
Fils A.82%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Fils A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
10 common opponents · Navone M. 4–7 · Fils A. 8–3
Both lost · different surfaces (Clay × Hard)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Navone M.
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Fils A.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.0Hard Elo 1693
Surface ELO
8.0+237 Hard Elo edge
2.8Overall Elo 1822
ELO gap
7.2Overall Elo 2001
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
8.38 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.67 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

39 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
Navone M.Fils A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
73%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
65%
74%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
57%
Service points won·Slight edge
60%
68%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
35%
Break points saved·Clear edge
55%
68%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.4
4.8
Double faults / match·Even
2.3
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Navone M.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Fils A.

Fils A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Navone M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Navone M.Fils A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
44
83
Break points saved·Clear edge
78
96
Break points won·Dominant
85
57
Deciding sets·Dominant
13
98
Tiebreaks·Dominant
69
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Navone M.Fils A.
Freshness·Clear edge
65
77

Navone M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 56 games (7d) · Fils A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
26°CMainly clear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 71%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw