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Win Probability

Friday, 7 August 2026
20 rated matches · 8 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchYuki Mochizuki vs Tsung Hao Huang49% · 51%Toss-up · M15 Tianjin · QF · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang94% · 6%Strong favourite · Toronto · R32 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches208 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalM15 Tianjin · QF · HardYuki Mochizuki won 6-1 6-2Yuki Mochizuki49%Tsung Hao Huang51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–3FinalM25+H Tauste · SF · HardIzan Almazan Valiente won 6-7 6-4 6-3Izan Almazan Valiente49%Benjamin Pietri51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalW15 Hameenlinna · QF · ClayAmelie Justine Hejtmanek won 1-6 6-4 7-5Amelie Justine Hejtmanek47%Madelief Hageman53%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalWarsaw · SF · HardCarol Young Suh Lee won 6-2 6-2Carol Young Suh Lee46%Vendula Valdmannova54%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 3–0FinalMontreal · R32 · HardTallon Griekspoor won 3-6 6-4 6-3Tallon Griekspoor54%Matteo Arnaldi46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalLexington · QF · HardDusan Lajovic won 7-6 2-6 6-4Abedallah Shelbayh55%Dusan Lajovic45%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalMontreal · R32 · HardRafael Jodar won 6-4 6-3Rafael Jodar44%Lorenzo Musetti56%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalGrodzisk Mazowiecki · QF · HardJoel Schwaerzler won 7-6 6-4Joel Schwaerzler43%Ilya Ivashka57%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalToronto · R32 · HardLiudmila Samsonova won 7-5 6-7 6-2Maya Joint39%Liudmila Samsonova61%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalMontreal · R32 · HardBotic Van De Zandschulp won 3-6 7-6 7-5Botic Van De Zandschulp35%Hubert Hurkacz65%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalMontreal · R32 · HardBrandon Nakashima won 4-6 6-2 7-5Brandon Nakashima67%Titouan Droguet33%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalMontreal · R32 · HardJiri Lehecka won 6-3 6-4Jiri Lehecka68%Alexander Blockx32%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalMontreal · R32 · HardArthur Rinderknech won 6-2 2-0Frances Tiafoe68%Arthur Rinderknech32%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 2–1FinalMontreal · R32 · HardDaniel Merida Aguilar won 6-4 6-7 6-1Daniel Merida Aguilar31%Alex Michelsen69%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalToronto · R32 · HardAmanda Anisimova won 3-6 6-0 6-4Nikola Bartunkova28%Amanda Anisimova72%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalMontreal · R32 · HardBen Shelton won 6-3 6-2Zizou Bergs28%Ben Shelton72%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalToronto · R32 · HardLeylah Fernandez won 6-1 6-4Mirra Andreeva83%Leylah Fernandez17%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 2–3FinalToronto · R32 · HardAlina Korneeva won 6-3 6-4Iva Jovic85%Alina Korneeva15%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalToronto · R32 · HardElena Rybakina won 6-2 7-5Ann Li15%Elena Rybakina85%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalToronto · R32 · HardAryna Sabalenka won 6-3 6-4Aryna Sabalenka94%Shuai Zhang6%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 5–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.