Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan DroguetMontreal Round of 32

Montreal · ATP · Round of 32
#16ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$2.2MYTD
$9.2MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Friday, 7 August 2026 ·
hard
ROGERS COURT · 4th on
#84ATP
1717ELO
1650Hard ELO
$520kYTD
$1.4MCAREER
25 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
Nakashima B.
4-6 6-2 7-5
Droguet T.
Nakashima B.
4672
Droguet T.
6251

Brandon Nakashima defeated Titouan Droguet in the Round of 32 at the Montreal tournament on hard courts. The match ended with a score of 4-6, 6-2, 7-5 in favor of Nakashima. Key stats included Nakashima's 5 aces and 1 double fault compared to Droguet's 10 aces and 5 double faults.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
78%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
69%
65%
Return points won·Even
34%
36%
Break points saved·Even
58%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
10.7
8.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
0.8
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
43
64
Break points saved·Slight edge
96
88
Break points won·Clear edge
3
17
Deciding sets·Dominant
55
93
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
81
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Nakashima B.67%
Droguet T.33%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Nakashima B. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.7+138 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.3Hard Elo 1650
6.5Overall Elo 1839
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1717
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.97 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.87 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
100
50

Nakashima B.: 20 days rest · Droguet T.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 112 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
25°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 88%

Draw