Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti — Montreal Round of 32

Montreal · ATP · Round of 32
Rafael Jodar
ESP20
Rafael Jodar
#15ATP
1999ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$1.9MCAREER
19 yrs · 191 cm
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 7 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 3rd on
Lorenzo Musetti
ITA11
Lorenzo Musetti
#13ATP
1869ELO
1804Hard ELO
$961kYTD
$15MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLWWLWW
Jodar R.
6-4 6-3
Musetti L.
Jodar R.
662
Musetti L.
430

Rafael Jodar defeated Lorenzo Musetti 6-4, 6-3 in the Round of 32 at the Montreal tournament. Jodar served 0 aces and 2 double faults, while Musetti served 1 ace and 4 double faults. Jodar converted 55% of break points and won 71% of first-serve points, Musetti converted 60% of break points and won 49% of first-serve points; Jodar had 6 service breaks to Musetti's 3.

Around the match

  • “I'm happy about the win, first win in Montreal. It's not easy, you know, and when you play the final on Monday because of the rain, and you have to play Wednesday here. But it is what it is. I accept it in the best way possible.”

    Jodar R.National Bank Open ↗

  • “I think playing a lot of matches really lets you get fitter during the matches and to get physically better. So, I think that's really helping me.”

    Jodar R.National Bank Open ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Rafael Jodar closed it out in two sets, 6–4 6–3.

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-31WashingtonQFhardRafael Jodar1-6 6-1 6-4

Statistics

This season
Jodar R.Musetti L.
1st serve in·Even
64%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
54%
Service points won·Even
65%
65%
Return points won·Even
41%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
67%
Aces / match·Even
4.5
4.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (45 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Jodar R.Musetti L.
Clutch Rating·Even
86
88
Break points saved·Even
91
94
Break points won·Slight edge
71
81
Deciding sets·Even
100
99
Tiebreaks·Even
93
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Jodar R.44%
Musetti L.56%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Jodar R.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Musetti L.
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.9+69 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Hard Elo 1804
6.6Overall Elo 1999
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1869
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
8.08 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.97 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Jodar R.Musetti L.
Freshness·Clear edge
58
78

Jodar R.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 86 games (7d) · Musetti L.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 40 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
26°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 83%

Draw