Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez — Toronto Round of 32

Toronto · WTA · Round of 32
Mirra Andreeva
RUS5
Mirra Andreeva
#5WTA
2074ELO
1994Hard ELO
$5.6MYTD
$13MCAREER
19 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLWWWWWW
—
Sets
Friday, 7 August 2026 ·
hard
Leylah Fernandez
CAN30
Leylah Fernandez
#34WTA
1805ELO
1785Hard ELO
$906kYTD
$8.3MCAREER
23 yrs · 168 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLWLLLWLLL
Andreeva M.
vs
Fernandez L.

Mirra Andreeva faces Leylah Fernandez in the Toronto round of 32 on hard. Mirra Andreeva holds the paper edge — ranked #5, leading the head-to-head 2–1, a roughly 210-point hard Elo advantage.

Around the match

  • “I knew that I was the last Canadian standing. My dad specifically said that before I walked on court. I guess that kind of lit a little fire in me.”

    Fernandez L.Sportsnet.ca ↗

  • “If I play Leylah, for sure it's going to be tough. Starting with that she's playing at home, so obviously the crowd is going to support her.”

    Andreeva M.Sportsnet.ca ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Andreeva M.82%
Fernandez L.18%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Andreeva M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
14 common opponents · Andreeva M. 14–5 · Fernandez L. 8–11
Both lost · same surface, 0 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Andreeva M.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Fernandez L.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.6+209 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.4Hard Elo 1785
8.4Overall Elo 2074
ELO gap
1.6Overall Elo 1805
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
8.68 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.65 of last 10 on hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

48 vs 33 matches

Statistics

This season
Andreeva M.Fernandez L.
1st serve in·Even
64%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
47%
Service points won·Even
61%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
47%
40%
Break points saved·Even
61%
64%
Aces / match·Even
3.1
2.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.6
5.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (48 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Andreeva M.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Fernandez L.

Fernandez L.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Andreeva M.

Serve advantage — Andreeva M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Andreeva M.Fernandez L.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
93
82
Break points saved·Slight edge
84
77
Break points won·Slight edge
100
90
Deciding sets·Slight edge
94
87
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
92
73

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Andreeva M.Fernandez L.
Freshness·Slight edge
92
86

Andreeva M.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 14 games (7d) · Fernandez L.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
24°COvercast
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 89%

Head to head

2–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-21MadridQFclayMirra Andreeva7-6 6-3
2023-10-09Hong KongR16hardLeylah Fernandez3-6 6-1 6-3
2023-04-24MadridR128clayMirra Andreeva6-3 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Draw