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Win Probability

Saturday, 8 August 2026
20 rated matches · 9 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchAlexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante50% · 50%Toss-up · Montreal · R32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteCoco Gauff vs Maria Sakkari80% · 20%Strong favourite · Toronto · R32 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches209 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalMontreal · R32 · HardThiago Agustin Tirante won 6-3 6-4Alexei Popyrin50%Thiago Agustin Tirante50%Toss-upH2H 1–0FinalMontreal · R32 · HardJoao Fonseca won 7-6(6) 6-3Casper Ruud48%Joao Fonseca52%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalW75 Leipzig · SF · ClayIda Wobker won 6-4 6-3Ida Wobker53%Aneta Laboutkova47%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalLexington · SF · HardEdas Butvilas won 6-2 6-7 6-2Edas Butvilas53%Dusan Lajovic47%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalMontreal · R32 · HardLearner Tien won 6-3 6-2Learner Tien46%Tommy Paul54%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalGrodzisk Mazowiecki · SF · HardAndrea Guerrieri won 0-6 6-3 6-4Andrea Guerrieri54%Daniil Glinka46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalM15 Poprad · SF · ClayPeter Makk won 6-4 6-2Peter Makk46%John Hallquist Lithen54%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalHagen · SF · ClayJerome Kym won 6-1 7-6Jerome Kym54%Elmer Moller46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalMontreal · R16 · HardLuciano Darderi won 4-6 6-3 7-5Nuno Borges55%Luciano Darderi45%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–3FinalToronto · R16 · HardIga Swiatek won 3-6 6-1 6-2Marta Kostyuk42%Iga Swiatek58%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 4–1FinalMontreal · R16 · HardBrandon Nakashima won 7-6 5-7 7-5Arthur Rinderknech41%Brandon Nakashima59%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalW35 Roehampton · SF · HardElla Mcdonald won 7-5 6-2Emily Appleton60%Ella Mcdonald40%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalToronto · R32 · HardAlexandra Eala won 6-3 5-7 6-4Caty Mcnally35%Alexandra Eala65%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalWarsaw · F · HardCarol Young Suh Lee won 6-4 7-5Carol Young Suh Lee65%Gabriela Andrea Knutson35%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalW35 Roehampton · SF · HardAmelia Rajecki won Jodie Burrage66%Amelia Rajecki34%Slight edgeH2H 0–2FinalToronto · R32 · HardNaomi Osaka won 6-1 6-2Elise Mertens32%Naomi Osaka68%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–7FinalToronto · R16 · HardDiana Shnaider won 6-3 6-3Jessica Pegula72%Diana Shnaider28%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–4FinalToronto · R32 · HardBelinda Bencic won 6-7(5) 7-6(4) 6-4Taylor Townsend27%Belinda Bencic73%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalMontreal · R32 · HardJakub Mensik won 7-5 6-4Terence Atmane23%Jakub Mensik77%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalToronto · R32 · HardCoco Gauff won 6-1 6-4Maria Sakkari20%Coco Gauff80%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 5–7
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.