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Win Probability

Sunday, 9 August 2026
16 rated matches · 10 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchJoel Schwaerzler vs Andrea Guerrieri49% · 51%Toss-up · Grodzisk Mazowiecki · F · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova92% · 8%Strong favourite · Toronto · R16 · Analyze match →
Rated that day16 matches1610 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalGrodzisk Mazowiecki · F · HardJoel Schwaerzler won 7-6 6-1Joel Schwaerzler49%Andrea Guerrieri51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalW75 Koksijde · F · ClayNoemi Basiletti won 2-6 7-5 7-5Barbora Palicova49%Noemi Basiletti51%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalToronto · R16 · HardElina Svitolina won 6-2 6-4Elina Svitolina52%Amanda Anisimova48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–5FinalHagen · F · ClayTom Gentzsch won 6-4 7-6Tom Gentzsch47%Jerome Kym53%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–1FinalMontreal · R16 · HardDaniel Merida Aguilar won 6-3 6-1Tallon Griekspoor53%Daniel Merida Aguilar47%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalMontreal · R16 · HardRafael Jodar won 6-3 6-3Jiri Lehecka54%Rafael Jodar46%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalLexington · F · HardEdas Butvilas won 6-2 1-6 7-6Andre Ilagan44%Edas Butvilas56%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalM15 Eupen · F · ClayM. Van Der Meerschen won 4-6 6-4 7-6M. Van Der Meerschen43%Theo Papamalamis57%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalIstanbul 2 · F · HardLucas Poullain won 5-7 6-2 6-3Lucas Poullain43%Ilia Simakin57%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalW15 Astana 4 · F · HardAsylzhan Arystanbekova won 6-3 6-1Su Jeong Jang61%Asylzhan Arystanbekova39%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalW100 Landisville · F · HardHanne Vandewinkel won 3-6 6-3 6-1Hanne Vandewinkel36%Anastasia Zakharova64%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalMontreal · R16 · HardLearner Tien won 6-4 6-4Learner Tien73%Thiago Agustin Tirante27%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalMontreal · R16 · HardArthur Fils won 6-2 7-6Arthur Fils77%Cameron Norrie23%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalToronto · R16 · HardCoco Gauff won 6-3 6-1Alina Korneeva21%Coco Gauff79%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalToronto · R16 · HardElena Rybakina won 6-4 4-6 6-4Liudmila Samsonova16%Elena Rybakina84%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–4FinalToronto · R16 · HardEkaterina Alexandrova won 7-6(3) 4-6 6-4Aryna Sabalenka92%Ekaterina Alexandrova8%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 4–5
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%
Yesterday · 8 Aug13 of 19 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 11.6 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days7 Aug 2026M15 Astana 2 · R16Maan Kesharwani beat Alibek Kachmazov 6-3 7-5Pre-match: Maan Kesharwani 11%Surprise score89

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.