Maria Sakkari vs Coco Gauff — Toronto Round of 32

Toronto · WTA · Round of 32
Maria Sakkari
GRE29
Maria Sakkari
#33WTA
1812ELO
1796Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$15MCAREER
31 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWWWLWW
—
Sets
Saturday, 8 August 2026 ·
hard
Coco Gauff
USA4
Coco Gauff
#4WTA
2071ELO
2035Hard ELO
$4.1MYTD
$34MCAREER
22 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWWLLLW
Sakkari M.
vs
Gauff C.

Maria Sakkari faces Coco Gauff in the Toronto round of 32 on hard. Coco Gauff holds the paper edge — ranked #4, leading the head-to-head 6–5, a roughly 240-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Sakkari M.19%
Gauff C.81%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Gauff C. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
13 common opponents · Sakkari M. 8–9 · Gauff C. 15–5
Gauff C. better · different surfaces (Hard × Clay)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sakkari M.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Gauff C.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.0Hard Elo 1796
Surface ELO
8.0+239 Hard Elo edge
1.8Overall Elo 1812
ELO gap
8.2Overall Elo 2071
2.6Trails 1–4 on hard
H2H
7.4Leads 4–1 on hard
7.27 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.78 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

33 vs 42 matches

Statistics

This season
Sakkari M.Gauff C.
1st serve in·Even
64%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
42%
Service points won·Even
59%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
54%
Aces / match·Even
2.7
2.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.9
6.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Sakkari M.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Gauff C.

Gauff C.serving77% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Sakkari M.

Serve advantage — Gauff C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Sakkari M.Gauff C.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
79
95
Break points saved·Even
77
81
Break points won·Slight edge
91
100
Deciding sets·Clear edge
79
100
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
76
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Sakkari M.Gauff C.
Freshness·
100
—

Sakkari M.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 72%

Head to head

5–6
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-05United CupQFhardCoco Gauff6-3 6-2
2025-03-22MiamiR32hardCoco Gauff6-2 6-4
2025-03-05Indian WellsR32hardCoco Gauff7-6 6-2
2024-03-06Indian WellsSFhardMaria Sakkari6-4 6-7 6-2
2023-10-02BeijingQFhardCoco Gauff6-2 6-4
2023-07-31WashingtonFhardCoco Gauff6-2 6-3
2022-05-09RomeR16clayMaria Sakkari6-4 7-5
2022-02-21DohaQFhardMaria Sakkari6-3 6-3
2021-05-10RomeR32clayCoco Gauff6-1 1-6 6-1
2021-01-06Abu DhabiR32hardMaria Sakkari7-5 6-2
2020-08-24CincinnatiR64hardMaria Sakkari6-1 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Draw