Elise Mertens vs Naomi OsakaToronto Round of 32

Toronto · WTA · Round of 32
#23WTA
1894ELO
1847Hard ELO
$2.2MYTD
$20MCAREER
30 yrs · 179 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWLWLWL
Sets
Saturday, 8 August 2026 ·
hard
#13WTA
1987ELO
1922Hard ELO
$1.8MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWWWLW
Mertens E.
vs
Osaka N.

Elise Mertens faces Naomi Osaka in the Toronto round of 32 on hard. Naomi Osaka holds the paper edge — ranked #13, leading the head-to-head 5–3, a roughly 70-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
10 common opponents · Mertens E. 4–7 · Osaka N. 9–4
Osaka N. better · same surface
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.1Hard Elo 1847
Surface ELO
5.9+74 Hard Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1894
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1987
7.8Leads 2–0 on hard
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on hard
5.76 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.47 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

36 vs 30 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
48%
Service points won·Even
61%
62%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Even
57%
58%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.3
5.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.8
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Mertens E.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Osaka N.

Osaka N.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Mertens E.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
63
89
Break points saved·Clear edge
62
85
Break points won·Even
97
97
Deciding sets·Dominant
51
97
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
69
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
79

Osaka N.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 60 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast

Head to head

35
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-23Bad HomburgR16grassNaomi Osaka6-3 6-3
2024-08-05TorontoR32hardElise Mertens6-3 6-4
2024-06-10s HertogenboschR32grassNaomi Osaka6-2 6-4
2024-03-06Indian WellsR32hardElise Mertens7-5 6-4
2021-03-22MiamiR16hardNaomi Osaka6-3 6-3
2020-08-24CincinnatiSFhardNaomi Osaka6-2 7-6
2019-09-16OsakaSFhardNaomi Osaka6-4 6-1
2017-09-25WuhanR64hardElise Mertens6-4 1-6 6-4

Draw