Joel Schwaerzler vs Ilya Ivashka — Grodzisk Mazowiecki Quarter-final
AUT3
Schwaerzler J.
Joel Schwaerzler faces Ilya Ivashka in the Grodzisk Mazowiecki quarter-final on hard. Joel Schwaerzler is the paper favourite — ranked #182 — but Ilya Ivashka rides a 3-match win streak.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Joel Schwaerzler comes in with 1 days of rest and 87 games in 14d, vs Ilya Ivashka's 3 and 60.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Joel Schwaerzler has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 55 vs 33).
- Win streak: Ilya Ivashka arrives on a 3-match winning run.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSchwaerzler J.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d) · Ivashka I.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 60 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.