UMPIRY
EN

Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez — Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo Quarter-final

Toray Pan Pacific Open - TokyoQuarter-finalHardFri 30 Oct · 05:30 UTCCenter · After 2 matches
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Rybakina E.
85%15%

Clear edge for Rybakina E. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 7 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Rybakina E.7.1/10
Strong advantage
Fernandez L.4.5/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+325 Hard Elo edgeSupports Rybakina E.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 2122Supports Rybakina E.
Recent run5-match win streakSupports Rybakina E.
Head-to-headLeads 3–2 on hardSupports Rybakina E.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Rybakina E.
ELO2 269
Hard ELO2 179
Last 109–1
Age27
Height184 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $35.4M2026 $10.9M
ELO1 950
Hard ELO1 856
Last 108–2
Age24
Height168 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $9.2M2026 $1.8M

Elena Rybakina faces Leylah Fernandez in the Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo quarter-final on hard. Elena Rybakina holds the paper edge — ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 4–2, a roughly 330-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

16 shared · last 12 months
All 16 opponents →

Rybakina E. and Fernandez L. faced 16 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Rybakina E. went 20–4 (83%) against them, Fernandez L. 14–11 (56%). Rybakina E. came out better against 6 of 15 comparable opponents, Fernandez L. against 2.

20–483%Rybakina E. · better vs 6Record vs common opponents14–1156%Fernandez L. · better vs 2
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
41–12Sets30–28
301–218Games288–262
4–1Tiebreaks1–4
4–2Deciding sets6–2
Show 13 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

6 meetings · Rybakina E. leads 4–2
Full H2H →
42

Hard: Rybakina E. leads 3–2 · Clay: Rybakina E. leads 1–0

Evidence

Rybakina E.Fernandez L.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss9–1 (ahead)8–2
Season win rate79% (54–14) (ahead)52% (30–28)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2269 (ahead)1950
Hard-court ELO2179 (ahead)1856
Serve vs returnLast 68 vs 56 matches
1st-serve points won74% (ahead)65%
Return points won43% (ahead)42%
Aces / match6.4 (ahead)2.6
ClutchLast 68 vs 56 matches
Break points saved64% (ahead)63%

When it starts

Center · After 2 matches · Not before 2:30 PM

Draw

Odds

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Rybakina E.Fernandez L.
4 — fresherDays since last match2
4Matches · 7 days4
65 — fresherGames · 7 days80
4 — fresherMatches · 14 days7
65 — fresherGames · 14 days167
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez — Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-30/fernandez-vs-rybakina-toray-pan-pacific-open-tokyo-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 30 October 2026).