Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Final
Why
Surface+325 Hard Elo edgeSupports Rybakina E.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 2122Supports Rybakina E.
Recent run3-match win streakInformative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Rybakina E.
Opponent formOpponent hot: 8 of last 10Against the prediction · Fernandez L.
ELO2 263
Hard ELO2 174
Last 109–1
Age27
Height184 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $35.4M2026 $10.9M
ELO1 939
Hard ELO1 847
Last 108–2
Age24
Height168 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $9.0M2026 $1.6M
Elena Rybakina faces Leylah Fernandez in the Ningbo Open - Ningbo final on hard. Elena Rybakina holds the paper edge — ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 3–2, a roughly 330-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Elena Rybakina 28 games in 14 days, Leylah Fernandez 159.
- Head-to-head: Elena Rybakina leads the head-to-head 3–2, 2–2 on hard. Last met at Stuttgart 2026.
- Win streak: Both arrive in form — Elena Rybakina on a 3-match run, Leylah Fernandez on 4.
Common opponents
16 shared · last 12 monthsRybakina E. and Fernandez L. faced 16 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Rybakina E. went 20–4 (83%) against them, Fernandez L. 13–12 (52%). Rybakina E. came out better against 6 of 15 comparable opponents, Fernandez L. against 2.
20–483%Rybakina E. · better vs 6Record vs common opponents13–1252%Fernandez L. · better vs 2
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
41–12Sets29–30
301–218Games286–268
4–1Tiebreaks0–4
4–2Deciding sets6–3
vs Andreeva M.#3W7-5 6-1Stuttgart · clayL6-7 3-6Madrid · clay
vs Pegula J.#4W2-6 6-3 6-4Miami · hardL2-6 2-6Miami · hard- vs Shnaider D.#13W6-3 6-4Stuttgart · clayL3-6 0-6Charleston · clay
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vs Mertens E.#15L6-7 1-6Wimbledon · grassW2-6 6-3 7-5Ningbo Open - Ningbo · hard
vs Mboko V.#16L5-7 6-4 4-6Doha · hardL4-6 4-6Strasbourg · clay
vs Osaka N.#19W4-6 7-6(5) 6-4Toronto · hardL4-6 4-6Toronto · hard
vs Eala A.#20W6-4 6-3Rome · clayW6-1 6-4Stuttgart · clay- vs Li A.#25W6-2 7-5Toronto · hardW6-3 6-2Madrid · clay
- vs Alexandrova E.#33W6-4 6-4WTA Finals · hardW6-4 3-6 6-3Wuhan · hard
vs Wang X.#39W6-2 6-4Doha · hardL3-6 4-6Bad Homburg · grass
vs Gibson T.#42W6-2 6-2Miami · hardW7-5 6-0Singapore · hard- vs Samsonova L.#43W6-4 4-6 6-4Toronto · hardW5-7 7-5 6-3Dubai · hard
vs Frech M.#47W6-4 7-6(2)Cincinnati · hardW6-4 3-6 6-4Strasbourg · clay
vs Boulter K.#58L5-7 6-2 4-6London · grassL6-3 6-7(4) 5-7London · grass- vs Zhang S.#85W6-3 7-5Brisbane · hardW6-3 6-2US Open · hard
vs Kudermetova P.#105Hard to compareW5-0Ningbo Open - Ningbo · hardW6-2 6-1Charleston · clay
Head-to-head
5 meetings · Rybakina E. leads 3–232
Clay: Rybakina E. leads 1–0 · Hard: level 2–2
- Rybakina E.April 2026StuttgartClay6-7 6-4 7-6
- Rybakina E.October 2025TokyoHard6-4 6-3
- Fernandez L.July 2025WashingtonHard6-7 7-6 7-6
- Fernandez L.August 2024CincinnatiHard3-6 7-6 6-4
- Rybakina E.February 2024DohaHard6-4 6-2
Evidence
Rybakina E.Fernandez L.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss9–1 (ahead)8–2
Season win rate79% (52–14) (ahead)51% (28–27)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2263 (ahead)1939
Hard-court ELO2174 (ahead)1847
Serve vs returnLast 65 vs 52 matches
1st-serve points won74% (ahead)66%
Return points won43% (ahead)42%
Aces / match6.5 (ahead)2.7
ClutchLast 65 vs 52 matches
Break points saved64% (ahead)63%
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-25/fernandez-vs-rybakina-ningbo-open-ningbo-f?utm_source=cite (as of 25 October 2026).