Shuai Zhang vs Leylah Fernandez — US Open Round of 128
CAN31
Zhang S.
Shuai Zhang faces Leylah Fernandez in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Leylah Fernandez holds the paper edge — ranked #32, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 32. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Fernandez L. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Shuai Zhang comes in with 3 days of rest and 61 games in 14d, vs Leylah Fernandez's 13 and 25.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Leylah Fernandez has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 80 vs 46).
- Head-to-head: Leylah Fernandez leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at Charleston 1 2021.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadZhang S.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Fernandez L.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-05 | Charleston 1 | R64 | clay | Leylah Fernandez | 6-3 6-1 |