Win probability

Friday, 17 July 2026

18 matches selected · 8 tournaments · model last ran 18:50 UTC

Umpiry rates 18 matches on Friday, 17 July 2026. The closest is Noma Noha Akugue v Francesca Jones at 52 % — the model’s most uncertain call of the day. The most one-sided is Alex Molcan v Damir Dzumhur at 78 %. Probabilities come from a per-tour model trained on Elo, surface Elo, recent serve and return form and layoff.

Rated matches · ordered closest first
Time	Tournament	Round	Match	Probability	Verdict	H2H
14:10	Rome CHALLENGER · clay	QF	Noha Akugue N.Jones F.	52 %48 %	Toss-up	0–2
14:30	Athens WTA · hard	QF	Zheng Q.Krejcikova B.	54 %46 %	Toss-up	3–1
08:40	Gstaad ATP · clay	QF	Collignon R.Vacherot V.	54 %46 %	Toss-up	2–1
10:50	Kitzbuhel CHALLENGER · clay	QF	Vandromme J.Grabher J.	54 %46 %	Toss-up	0–1
12:00	Istanbul 2 CHALLENGER · hard	QF	Zvonareva V.Tararudee L.	56 %44 %	Toss-up	0–1
15:00	Bastad ATP · clay	QF	Tabilo A.Tirante T.	56 %44 %	Toss-up	3–1
16:40	Umag ATP · clay	SF	Merida Aguilar D.Burruchaga R.	56 %44 %	Toss-up	2–0
18:15	Athens WTA · hard	QF	Tauson C.Bejlek S.	58 %42 %	Slight edge	1–1
14:05	Gstaad ATP · clay	QF	Halys Q.Shevchenko A.	60 %40 %	Slight edge	4–2
16:00	Gstaad ATP · clay	QF	Tsitsipas S.Rinderknech A.	65 %35 %	Slight edge	2–0
15:30	Iasi WTA · clay	QF	Badosa P.Udvardy P.	66 %34 %	Slight edge	2–0
10:05	Iasi WTA · clay	QF	Putintseva Y.Sherif M.	66 %34 %	Slight edge	0–1
11:00	Bastad ATP · clay	QF	Darderi L.Borges N.	67 %33 %	Slight edge	2–3
16:30	Athens WTA · hard	QF	Sakkari M.Parks A.	69 %31 %	Clear favourite	1–2
13:30	Bastad ATP · clay	QF	Rublev A.Baez S.	72 %28 %	Clear favourite	1–1
11:40	Gstaad ATP · clay	QF	Ruud C.Cerundolo J.	75 %25 %	Clear favourite	1–2
10:00	Gstaad ATP · clay	R16	Bublik A.Halys Q.	76 %24 %	Clear favourite	0–2
19:10	Umag ATP · clay	SF	Molcan A.Dzumhur D.	78 %22 %	Clear favourite	3–2

Rated matches · ordered most one-sided first
Time	Tournament	Round	Match	Probability	Verdict	H2H
13:30	Bastad ATP · clay	QF	Rublev A.Baez S.	72 %28 %	Clear favourite	1–1
10:00	Gstaad ATP · clay	R16	Bublik A.Halys Q.	76 %24 %	Clear favourite	0–2
11:40	Gstaad ATP · clay	QF	Ruud C.Cerundolo J.	75 %25 %	Clear favourite	1–2
19:10	Umag ATP · clay	SF	Molcan A.Dzumhur D.	78 %22 %	Clear favourite	3–2

How to read this

Each row gives the model’s probability that the favourite wins, and the verdict says the same thing in words. Rows are ordered by how close the model thinks the match is, so the top of the table is where it is least sure. A 70 % favourite losing is not a broken model — it is the 30 %. Probabilities are not odds and take no account of any market.

How often the model has been right

Umpiry win-probability model accuracy by tour family, measured on the predictions the model made
Tour	Correct
ATP / WTA	66 %
Challenger (men)	64 %
Challenger (women)	68 %
ITF (men)	66 %
ITF (women)	64 %

Measured on the predictions the model actually made, not on a backtest — see Methodology.

Yesterday

Thursday, 16 July 2026 · 10 matches

Favourites won

6 / 10

Model expected

6.4

The model expected 6.4 favourites to win; 6 did. See yesterday’s page.

Biggest shock, last 7 days

15 Jul

Pozoblanco

CHALLENGER · hard

R16

Tiago Pereira beat Yi Zhou

Surprise score

Questions

How is the probability calculated?: A separate model for each tour, trained on Elo, surface-specific Elo, recent serve and return form and time since the player’s last match. It runs several times a day; the time of the last run is at the top of this page.
How often is the model right?: We publish it. The table above gives the hit rate for each tour family, measured on the predictions the model actually made — see Methodology for how it is computed.
Why are the closest matches at the top?: Rows are ordered by distance from 50 %, so the table opens where the model is least sure. “Most one-sided” reverses the order and groups the rows by tournament.
Is this a betting tip?: No. The page shows a model’s probability and how often that model has been right. There are no odds, no comparison with a market and no suggested stake.