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Win Probability

Friday, 17 July 2026
19 rated matches · 9 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchFrancesca Jones vs Noma Noha Akugue48% · 52%Toss-up · Rome · QF · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAlex Molcan vs Damir Dzumhur78% · 22%Clear favourite · Umag · SF · Analyze match →
Rated that day19 matches199 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalRome · QF · ClayFrancesca Jones won 6-3 6-1Francesca Jones48%Noma Noha Akugue52%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalGstaad · QF · ClayRaphael Collignon won 7-6(7) 4-6 7-5Raphael Collignon54%Valentin Vacherot46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalKitzbuhel · QF · ClayJulia Grabher won 6-2 7-6(5)Julia Grabher46%Jeline Vandromme54%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalAthens · QF · HardBarbora Krejcikova won 6-4 6-4Barbora Krejcikova46%Qinwen Zheng54%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalIstanbul 2 · QF · HardLanlana Tararudee won 6-3 6-2Vera Zvonareva56%Lanlana Tararudee44%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalBastad · QF · ClayAlejandro Tabilo won Alejandro Tabilo56%Thiago Agustin Tirante44%Toss-upH2H 3–1FinalUmag · SF · ClayDaniel Merida Aguilar won 6-4 6-2Roman Andres Burruchaga44%Daniel Merida Aguilar56%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalLincoln · R16 · HardBu Yunchaokete won 6-4 6-4Yibing Wu58%Bu Yunchaokete42%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalAthens · QF · HardClara Tauson won 6-2 6-3Clara Tauson58%Sara Bejlek42%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalGstaad · QF · ClayAlexander Shevchenko won 7-6(5) 6-3Quentin Halys60%Alexander Shevchenko40%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 2–3FinalGstaad · QF · ClayStefanos Tsitsipas won 6-3 3-6 6-3Arthur Rinderknech35%Stefanos Tsitsipas65%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalIasi · QF · ClayMayar Sherif won 6-2 3-6 7-6(5)Yulia Putintseva66%Mayar Sherif34%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalIasi · QF · ClayPaula Badosa won 6-4 7-6(2)Panna Udvardy34%Paula Badosa66%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalBastad · QF · ClayLuciano Darderi won 7-6(9) 6-4Nuno Borges33%Luciano Darderi67%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–3FinalAthens · QF · HardMaria Sakkari won 6-4 6-3Alycia Parks31%Maria Sakkari69%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalBastad · QF · ClayAndrey Rublev won 6-1 6-2Andrey Rublev72%Sebastian Baez28%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalGstaad · QF · ClayJuan Manuel Cerundolo won 3-6 7-5 6-2Juan Manuel Cerundolo25%Casper Ruud75%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalGstaad · R16 · ClayQuentin Halys won 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(5)Alexander Bublik76%Quentin Halys24%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalUmag · SF · ClayDamir Dzumhur won 3-6 6-4 6-3Damir Dzumhur22%Alex Molcan78%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 2–2
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 16 Jul6 of 10 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 6.4 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days15 Jul 2026Pozoblanco · R16Tiago Pereira beat Yi Zhou 5-7 7-6(5) 6-3Pre-match: Tiago Pereira 10%Surprise score90

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.