Nuno Borges vs Luciano Darderi — Bastad Quarter-final

Bastad · ATP · Quarter-final

POR

Nuno Borges

#52ATP

1769ELO

1726Clay ELO

$811kYTD

$5.3MCAREER

29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWLWWWLL

—

Sets

Friday, 17 July 2026 · 10:00

clay

ITA

Luciano Darderi

#18ATP

1835ELO

1836Clay ELO

$1.3MYTD

$4.7MCAREER

24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLWLWLWWL

Borges N.

Darderi L.

Nuno Borges faces Luciano Darderi in the Bastad quarter-final on clay. Luciano Darderi is the paper favourite — ranked #18, defending the title, a roughly 110-point clay Elo advantage — but Nuno Borges has won both their previous meetings, though none on clay.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC

Borges N.33%

Darderi L.67%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Darderi L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Nuno Borges 54 games in 14 days, Luciano Darderi 0.
Serve & return: Nuno Borges leads on Serve Rating (31), Luciano Darderi on Return Rating (49).
Last match: Nuno Borges dropped just 6 games past Grigor Dimitrov.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Borges N.

6.4

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Darderi L.

7.1

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

3.6Clay Elo 1726

Surface ELO

6.4+110 Clay Elo edge

4.2Overall Elo 1769

ELO gap

5.8Overall Elo 1834

5.0First meeting on clay

H2H

5.0First meeting on clay

6.46 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

6.77 of last 10 on clay

Context

6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Borges N.Rising

Darderi L.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 24 matches

Statistics

This season

Borges N.Darderi L.

1st serve in·Slight edge

65%

57%

1st serve points won·Even

73%

74%

2nd serve points won·Even

50%

Service points won·Even

65%

63%

Return points won·Even

34%

38%

Break points saved·Slight edge

62%

56%

Aces / match·Even

6.3

6.5

Double faults / match·Even

2.2

2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Borges N.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Darderi L.

Darderi L.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Borges N.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Borges N.Darderi L.

Clutch Rating·Even

Break points saved·Even

Break points won·Even

Deciding sets·Even

Tiebreaks·Clear edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Serve & return on clay

Borges N.Darderi L.

—

Serve

—

Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load

Borges N.Darderi L.

Freshness·Clear edge

100

Borges N.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Darderi L.: 16 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Slowlow bounce, long rallies

SlowFast

Weather forecast

24°COvercast

Wind 5 km/hHumidity 58%

Head to head

2–0

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026-06-25	Mallorca	QF	grass	Nuno Borges	6.1-7.7 4-6
2025-01-06	Auckland	R32	hard	Nuno Borges	5-7 6-3 7-5

View full head-to-head →