Francesca Jones vs Noma Noha Akugue — Rome Quarter-final
Jones F.
Francesca Jones faces Noma Noha Akugue in the Rome quarter-final on clay. Francesca Jones holds the paper edge — ranked #123, a roughly 70-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Francesca Jones comes in with 2 days of rest and 69 games in 14d, vs Noma Noha Akugue's 2 and 47.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Francesca Jones has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 78 vs 57).
- Last match: Francesca Jones dropped the opening set before beating Federica Urgesi 2–6 6–4 6–1.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadJones F.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d) · Noha Akugue N.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.