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Win Probability

Saturday, 18 July 2026
11 rated matches · 8 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchAleksandar Vukic vs Alexis Galarneau50% · 50%Toss-up · Granby · QF · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteStefanos Tsitsipas vs Alexander Shevchenko78% · 22%Clear favourite · Gstaad · SF · Analyze match →
Rated that day11 matches118 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalGranby · QF · HardAleksandar Vukic won 7-6(2) 7-6(2)Aleksandar Vukic50%Alexis Galarneau50%Toss-upH2H 0–2FinalKitzbuhel · SF · ClayJulia Grabher won 6-1 6-4Veronika Erjavec54%Julia Grabher46%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalAthens · SF · HardBarbora Krejcikova won 6-1 4-6 6-3Clara Tauson46%Barbora Krejcikova54%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalBastad · SF · ClayAndrey Rublev won 6-4 4-6 6-4Andrey Rublev59%Alejandro Tabilo41%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalIstanbul 2 · SF · HardHanne Vandewinkel won 6-3 6-3Anastasia Zakharova59%Hanne Vandewinkel41%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalBastad · SF · ClayLuciano Darderi won 6-4 6-7(11) 6-3Adolfo Daniel Vallejo35%Luciano Darderi65%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalIasi · SF · ClayMayar Sherif won 6-3 6-1Mayar Sherif35%Oleksandra Oliynykova65%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 4–1FinalGstaad · SF · ClayRaphael Collignon won 1-6 7-6(5) 7-5Raphael Collignon67%Juan Manuel Cerundolo33%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–1FinalIasi · SF · ClayPaula Badosa won 3-6 7-5 7-6(1)Paula Badosa68%Tamara Zidansek32%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalUmag · F · ClayDaniel Merida Aguilar won 6-2 5-7 6-2Daniel Merida Aguilar76%Damir Dzumhur24%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalGstaad · SF · ClayStefanos Tsitsipas won 6-4 3-6 6-3Alexander Shevchenko22%Stefanos Tsitsipas78%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 17 Jul8 of 18 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 11.4 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days15 Jul 2026Pozoblanco · R16Tiago Pereira beat Yi Zhou 5-7 7-6(5) 6-3Pre-match: Tiago Pereira 10%Surprise score90

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.